US loses top credit rating

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Captain Seafort
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US loses top credit rating

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One of the world's leading credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor's, has downgraded the United States' top-notch AAA rating for the first time ever.

S&P cut the long-term US rating by one notch to AA+ with a negative outlook, citing concerns about budget deficits.

The agency said the deficit reduction plan passed by the US Congress on Tuesday did not go far enough.

Correspondents say the downgrade could erode investors' confidence in the world's largest economy.

It is already struggling with huge debts, unemployment of 9.1% and fears of a possible double-dip recession.

The downgrade is a major embarrassment for the administration of President Barack Obama and could raise the cost of US government borrowing.

This in turn could trickle down to higher interest rates for local governments and individuals.
Analysis

US debt as a proportion of GDP is on a rising track but is not massively more than a number of other countries that still have the AAA rating.

Bankers and fund managers have taken a view of US debt for decades that it is completely and utterly safe.

One influential body, S&P, is saying there is a risk of lending to the US and that will have repercussions.

S&P have admitted there was an arithmetic error over what the level of debt would be in 10 years time relative to GDP.

The US government says the $2tn error undermines the credibility of their work.

On the other hand $20tn, which is what the US government accepts as a reasonable forecast, still takes the debt to 85% of GDP and keeps it on a rising trend - and that is one of the two reasons why S&P has downgraded the US.

The other fundamental point is that because of the political rows over raising the US debt ceiling they've lost confidence in the decision-making mechanism of America. That is as damaging in terms of the confidence of investors as anything else.
However, some analysts said with debt woes across much of the developed world, US debt remained an attractive option for investors.

The other two major credit rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch, said on Friday night they had no immediate plans to follow S&P in taking the US off their lists of risk-free borrowers.

'Flawed judgement'

Officials in Washington told US media that the agency's sums were deeply flawed.

Unnamed sources were quoted as saying that a treasury official had spotted a $2 trillion [£1.2 trillion] mistake in the agency's analysis.

"A judgment flawed by a $2tn error speaks for itself," a US treasury department spokesman said of the S&P analysis. He did not offer any immediate explanation.

John Chambers, chairman of S&P's sovereign ratings committee, told CNN that the US could have averted a downgrade if it had resolved its congressional stalemate earlier.

"The first thing it could have done is raise the debt ceiling in a timely matter so the debate would have been avoided to begin with," he said.

International reaction to the S&P move has been mixed.

China, the world's largest holder of US debt, had "every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," said a commentary in the official Xinhua news agency.

"International supervision over the issue of US dollars should be introduced and a new, stable and secured global reserve currency may also be an option to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country," the commentary said.

However, officials in Japan, South Korea and Australia have urged a calm response to the downgrade.

The S&P announcement comes after a week of turmoil on global stock markets, partly triggered by fears over the US economy's recovery and the eurozone crisis.

S&P had threatened the downgrade if the US could not agree to cut its federal debt by at least $4tn over the next decade.

Instead, the bill passed by Congress on Tuesday plans $2.1tn in savings over 10 years.

S&P said the Republicans and Democrats had only been able to agree "relatively modest savings", which fell "well short" of what had been envisaged.

The agency also noted that the legislation delegates the lion's share of savings to a bipartisan committee, which must report back to Congress in November on where the axe should fall.

The bill - which also raises the federal debt ceiling by up to $2.4tn, from $14.3tn, over a decade - was passed on Tuesday just hours before the expiry of a deadline to raise the US borrowing limit.
S&P ratings (selected)

AAA: UK, France, Germany, Canada, Australia
AA+: USA, Belgium, New Zealand
AA-: Japan, China

Source: S&P
S&P said in its report issued late on Friday: "The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilise the government's medium-term debt dynamics.

"More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges."

The agency said it might lower the US long-term rating another notch to AA within the next two years if its deficit reduction measures were deemed inadequate.

S&P noted that the bill passed by Congress this week did not include new revenues - Republicans had staunchly opposed President Barack Obama's calls for tax rises to help pay off America's deficit.

The credit agency also noted that the legislation contained only minor policy changes to Medicare, an entitlement programme dear to Democrats.

"The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed," it added.
Beeb

Oops.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Mikey »

"Oops," nothing - this is a result of a carefully-constructed plan of infighting, head-burying, and refusal to see the forest for the trees. It also, BTW, is about as meaningless in practical terms as such a statement can possibly be.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

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S&P ratings (selected)

AAA: UK
AA+: USA
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by RK_Striker_JK_5 »

And it's at this point I'd love to get a bullhorn and about two feet away from some of these idiots in Washington...
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Teaos »

How do they still even have AA+?
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Nickswitz »

I don't know, if I had a couple trillion dollars in debt I doubt anywhere would let me borrow money from them.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by RK_Striker_JK_5 »

Not without using a major organ as collateral.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Captain Seafort »

RK_Striker_JK_5 wrote:Not without using a major organ as collateral.
Try a few hundred brains from the Hill and the White House. It's not as if they're being used.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by RK_Striker_JK_5 »

Captain Seafort wrote:
RK_Striker_JK_5 wrote:Not without using a major organ as collateral.
Try a few hundred brains from the Hill and the White House. It's not as if they're being used.
And Seafort gets one 'witty' point.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Mikey »

Teaos wrote:How do they still even have AA+?
"Still even have AA+?" Really? Moody's and Fitch still have the U.S.A. as "AAA." Only Standard and Poor's has downgraded the U.S.A. to "AA+." Also, so you understand, there is precious little in the financial world rated less than "AA," so the S&P downgrade isn't as insignificant as you seem to think, even though it isn't unanimous or even a majority.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Graham Kennedy »

Strikes me as something of a political ploy, frankly.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Mikey »

It really is. Now, each side gets to tell the other "If you'd listened to me we wouldn't be in the shit."
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Tyyr »

The real question is when we've been living so far beyond our means for so long, pulling the national equivalent of using a credit card to pay the mortgage, how has our credit rating been this good?
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Mikey »

Overly simplistic answer: because at the international level, DTI ratios are almost meaningless, whereas for individuals they are very real factors. For us poor slobs: person A makes $1 mil a year, pays everybody 3 days before payments are due, and has $2 mil in debt. B makes $75k a year, pays everybody "just" on time, and has $75k in debt. Guess what? B will have a better credit rating because of his better DTI. Such criteria are almost meaningless when applied to entities like nations.
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Re: US loses top credit rating

Post by Graham Kennedy »

Tyyr wrote:The real question is when we've been living so far beyond our means for so long, pulling the national equivalent of using a credit card to pay the mortgage, how has our credit rating been this good?
You aren't living beyond your means. You've just not been willing to pay for what you spend.
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