US Versus Iran (hypothetical)

[Sionnach Glic]

For whatever reasons you care to think up, Bush declares war on Iran tonight.
What would happen?

[Aaron]

For whatever reasons you care to think up, Bush declares war on Iran tonight.
What would happen?

With the US current committments? Aerial and Naval bombardment, limited SF actions. Nothing else as the bulk of the Army/Marines are tied down in Afghanistan/Iraq.

Without being in Iraq or Afghanistan? Complete and utter curbstomp of Iran within a month, than a long drawn out deathrattle of an insurgency until the Yanks get tired and leave.

[Sionnach Glic]

Yes, I meant as of now.

[Teaos]

Right now?

They cant.

They will air strike what they can and destroy what they are able to.

Iran will storm over into Iraq and fight a ground war against a out numbered US ground force. Massive insurgency in Iraq setting them back years.

Israel will jump at the chance to hit Iran. The rest of the middle east will bitch and moan but probably not make any big move.

A few black eyes and bloody noses but nothing will be achived but to further the cluster fu*k that is the middle east.

I doubt they would even get rid of the government unless they got a lucky shot in with a cruise missle.

[Mikey]

That's exactly what it would be - naval and aerial surgical strikes, followed by "linebacker" missions in support of the the opportunistic Israeli main conventional war, primarily comprising battalions of Merkava IV's rolling over everything they could find.

[Aaron]

That's exactly what it would be - naval and aerial surgical strikes, followed by "linebacker" missions in support of the the opportunistic Israeli main conventional war, primarily comprising battalions of Merkava IV's rolling over everything they could find.

What, their going to drive all the way from Israel to Iran? The Americans are gonna get fucked on an international level if they give the Israeli's free sealfit into Iran. And hell, you wouldn't even help the UK in the Falklands.

[Mikey]

Sorry, bit of a daydream there. Just imagining a joyous time during which everyone in the Middle East finally kills each other and shuts the f*** up.

[Aaron]

Sorry, bit of a daydream there. Just imagining a joyous time during which everyone in the Middle East finally kills each other and shuts the f*** up.

Give them surplus nukes and some rockets that can only go a 1,000km. They'll kill each other off the day after they figure out which end the hot stuff comes out of.

[Mikey]

I would, but I'm fresh out. And the neighbors stopped letting borrow a cup of plutonium.

[Captain Picard's Hair]

Just imagining this scenario: Chief of Staff: "Speaking hypothetically, sir, it's impossible given our current situation."

Bush (echoes Ferengi in Unification but means it) "I never learned to speak hypothetical. Let's do it!"

[Mikey]

Are you kidding? Bush couldn't even say the word "hypothetical."

[Aaron]

I would, but I'm fresh out. And the neighbors stopped letting borrow a cup of plutonium.

Do you have a use pinball machine?

*cookie for the referance*

[Captain Picard's Hair]

I would, but I'm fresh out. And the neighbors stopped letting borrow a cup of plutonium.

Do you have a use pinball machine?

*cookie for the referance*

THE LIBYANS!!! Nice to have a converted DeLorean around

[sunnyside]

In all seriousness.

First off everybody in the middle east that isn't Persian/Shia is somewhere between disliking Iran having nukes and being scared crapless of them getting them (if Iran gets nukes expect a local arms race or at least attempts at it). Well, I've only seen stories on this in regards to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, but I bet the rest are similar.

For tactical considerations we have to at least respect their anti ship missiles. They've got newer ones and right now it's a lot easier to hit a ship than defend one. But they're short ranged. So we should try and pull our naval forces out or at least back ahead of time. Our carriers give us a lot more range than they have, we don't need to be close.

Their navy is a joke though. It'd pretty much go down in the first wave I'd expect.

We really don't know the quality of their Surface to Air missile system. We're pretty sure they'll be able to "see" our stealth bombers. But we don't know that they can actually lock onto them. We may send a couple out and see what they can do. Since our priority is their facilities we can pour missiles at them and hope to clear them out. We may also try to send fighters in low.

We'll probably be trying to take out their air defenses, probably using cluster bombs (best way to take out an airfield), and that likely means we'll be getting reports of civilian casualties.

Though Iran promises to send out a wave of their ballistic missiles. So the world may not listen the them sobbing so much.

They can't hit the US. According to them they'll be firings at bases we have in the region (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq, Afganistan), and of course showing plenty of love on Israel.

After that it's a question of what kind of damage they do (we can't really be sure how their missiles and our defenses will match up, but I think it'll favor us). Likely we'll find ourselves in something of a state like with Serbia. We can't fly freely as they've got SAMs hidden out in the woods. And with their large groudn forces we won't want to go in on the ground. We're hoping that they'll want to surrender.

They'll be hoping lots of Shia/Persians commit mass treason and start disabeling the middle east and maybe the US from within. Honestly I can't say to what degree that'll be the case. But that's really their biggest threat.

Oh and oil shipments will temporarily be massively reduced from Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. In addition to the countries buying off Iran having to find a new source. So expect a price jump.

Maybe then we'll finally see battery/Fuel cell cars go mainstream so we can just let those countries swelter in poverty.

[Captain Seafort]

Agreed, with a caveat for this point:

First off everybody in the middle east that isn't Persian/Shia is somewhere between disliking Iran having nukes and being scared crapless of them getting them (if Iran gets nukes expect a local arms race or at least attempts at it).

Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. If the US doesn't stop them the Israelis will. Probably by conventional airstrikes, but I wouldn't put it past them to launch a nuclear preemptive strike if they felt it was the only alternative to a nuclear-armed Iran.