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Rochey wrote:For whatever reasons you care to think up, Bush declares war on Iran tonight.
What would happen?

He's impeached for breach of Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.

GrahamKennedy wrote:He's impeached for breach of Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.

I assume that's the bit that says only Congress is allowed to declare war? Isn't it the case that he can effectively do what he likes for the first 90 days?

Captain Seafort wrote:

GrahamKennedy wrote:He's impeached for breach of Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.

I assume that's the bit that says only Congress is allowed to declare war? Isn't it the case that he can effectively do what he likes for the first 90 days?

Basically, except for making the specific declaration. We never declared war in Viet Nam, and nothing happened there, right?

In an actual declared war? Iran would lose, and lose heavily. Simply put, the US is a superpower; Iran is not. The US has a population of 300 million to draw soldiers from; Iran has 70 million.

However, an actual declared war isn't going to happen. Even Bush isn't that stupid. Too expensive, and waaaaay too high a political cost in having to add another million plus to the military to tackle it.

What Bush would like is to let the USAF and USN off the leash. If he does, then F-22s will obliterate the Iranian airforce; that battle would barely even be a contest. The USN will wipe the Iranian Navy from the sea, though I suspect they might have a few surprises along the way. I read that in exercises small boat swarms shocked the hell out of a US Navy task force a while back. No doubt work has been done on that since, but who knows. Still, in the end the US will win that battle too.

It's then a case of bombing the crap out of Iran for a while. How much good will that do, really, though? I suspect not too much. It's harder than most people think to eliminate a major government project, especially if they have had plenty of time and warning to distribute it around and hide it. I've no doubt they can cause a significant setback, though.

The kicker is, if I was Iran and that happened, I'd send the entire army across the border and invade Iraq. Though I am no expert, I imagine the entire Iranian army might have a decent chance against the relatively small US force there. It would certainly panic a whole lot of people in the US!

Mikey wrote:Basically, except for making the specific declaration. We never declared war in Viet Nam, and nothing happened there, right?

Well, technically Vietnam wasn't a war until the northern invasion in '72 - up till then it was 'just' a counterinsurgency campaign. Given that, using the term "war" would given the insurgents the illusion of legitimacy - that's why it was consciously avoided in the Malayan Emergency and in Vietnam.

I know the US would win (duh). My question is really more in the wider sense. What happens to the US's reputation internationaly, how does this affect various economies, how much more bogged down would the US military become, etc?

Captain Seafort wrote:

GrahamKennedy wrote:He's impeached for breach of Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.

I assume that's the bit that says only Congress is allowed to declare war? Isn't it the case that he can effectively do what he likes for the first 90 days?

Longer than that. I was mostly joking; the wording is vague enough that you can pretty much fight a war as long as you don't call it a war. See Vietnam for example.

I think the equation "Iran + nukes" is scary enough that the situation wouldn't have the same connotation of US aggression as Iraq did.

GrahamKennedy wrote:
What Bush would like is to let the USAF and USN off the leash. If he does, then F-22s will obliterate the Iranian airforce; that battle would barely even be a contest. The USN will wipe the Iranian Navy from the sea, though I suspect they might have a few surprises along the way. I read that in exercises small boat swarms shocked the hell out of a US Navy task force a while back. No doubt work has been done on that since, but who knows. Still, in the end the US will win that battle too.

Are you referring to the Ex where a small boat swarm took down a CVBG? If you are the rumor is that the guy running the enemy forced cheated by operating out of area, respawning boats that were killed etc.

GrahamKennedy wrote:

Captain Seafort wrote:

GrahamKennedy wrote:He's impeached for breach of Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution.

I assume that's the bit that says only Congress is allowed to declare war? Isn't it the case that he can effectively do what he likes for the first 90 days?

Longer than that. I was mostly joking; the wording is vague enough that you can pretty much fight a war as long as you don't call it a war. See Vietnam for example.

See: War Powers Act 1973

Rochey wrote:I know the US would win (duh). My question is really more in the wider sense. What happens to the US's reputation internationaly, how does this affect various economies, how much more bogged down would the US military become, etc?

Well they can veto anything in the UN, so no sanctions will be brought against them. And their reputation can't go much further down the pooper than the u-bend it's in now.

OIl will go up (big shock there) and depending on how quick the Iranians get crushed, they may start firing at Gulf traffic. Tanker and regular merchant.

The US MIlitary will be burned out, their already going to be at least a decade reconstituting after Iraq as it is.

Again on the boats we need to just back our fleets off. Little boats, their surface combatants, and their shore based defenses are all a threat over ~200km.

After that they can't do too much. And their ships don't have missiles capable of hitting even a non stealth fighter that goes after them.

The trouble is right now the Enterprise (appropriately enough ) and associated group is sitting all too close. The worry here is if Israel does something without first telling us so that those ships come under fire where they are. We'd probably lose a few that way.

The trouble with a strike on Iran is that people can always just claim that, despite totally blowing off the UN and the terms of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, Iran was just making a nice peaceful energy program. By the time we know for a fact they have nuclear weapons it's rather too late. At that point you probably either have to just let them act overtly in the region against Israel or attack them and hope not too many Jews die.

There ARE non-Jewish Israelis, you know.

Anyway, I think that no matter what the international community may think of the US, there aren't too many people out there who would buy the "peaceful energy program" story. If that were the case, why did Iran flip off the EU and their offer of assistance?

I agree that if war happens Iran will invade Iraq.

That wouldn't be a good move. I'd be surprised if they'd do it. Sneaking some light infantry across at night, maybe. Maybe see if they can get some boarder towns that are too close to come cover.

But advancing a large force across the open road against the US when we have air superiority? That's a highway of death scenario for them (remember that). The open terrain in much of Iraq is really our favorite for combat. Plus for once we'd be defending, so forces of theirs that might get through wouldn't be home free by any stretch.

Most of my concerns are around possible persian/shia treason. Though if Iran was attacking their country maybe the Iraqis would pull together.