The scimitar arm gets longer...

[Mikey]

One would hope you're right, Graham, but there have been times that Iran has followed the path of least rationality.

[Graham Kennedy]

I can't see them essentially committing national suicide, though. Striking Israel or the west would basically destroy their entire country, very likely including the large majority of their religious and political leadership.

[Sionnach Glic]

There's no way Iran, or any ME nation, would ever use nukes. They know full well that launching a nuke would end with them being turned into radioactive glass by every other nation on the planet.
Nukes are great for saber ratling, but not for actualy warfare.

[Captain Seafort]

Suppose Iran does build nukes. Does anybody here think they would actually use them, given what would happen next?

The Iranians will never have nukes - even assuming the US doesn't bomb the crap out of them at the first sign that they're getting close, the Israelis will. With nukes, if necessary.

[Mikey]

That last bit is dead-on. The Israelis and patience/cooler heads do not exactly have a friendly relationship.

[Graham Kennedy]

Somehow I can't see them doing it. Nuking another country out of the blue... it would be an immense risk. Suppose Russia decided to lob a few nukes back in retaliation? Is Israel really going to run that risk?

[Mikey]

Unless things change a great deal in the Knesset very soon, I truly believe that Israel would launch a nuclear strike (albeit as a completely last resort) before allowing Iran to launch its own.

[Captain Seafort]

Somehow I can't see them doing it. Nuking another country out of the blue... it would be an immense risk. Suppose Russia decided to lob a few nukes back in retaliation? Is Israel really going to run that risk?

It's a judgement call between the possibility of the Russians getting uppity, an the risk posed by a nuclear armed Iran - given the number of times Ahmadinejad has expressed a desire to wipe Israel off the map, I doubt the Israels would take too long mulling over their options.

[Graham Kennedy]

Somehow I can't see them doing it. Nuking another country out of the blue... it would be an immense risk. Suppose Russia decided to lob a few nukes back in retaliation? Is Israel really going to run that risk?

It's a judgement call between the possibility of the Russians getting uppity, an the risk posed by a nuclear armed Iran - given the number of times Ahmadinejad has expressed a desire to wipe Israel off the map, I doubt the Israels would take too long mulling over their options.

I don't really take those kinds of threats all that seriously myself. It very much sounds like the kind of thing a man in his position is "expected" to say.

[Mikey]

I don't really take those kinds of threats all that seriously myself.

You're probably right. For good or ill, though, someone as level-headed as yourself is not the Prime Minister of Israel.

[Graham Kennedy]

Well, we shall see.

[Mikey]

Now, al-Sadr says that they will violently oppose any deal for the Americans to remain in Iraq for a finite time to help finish "setting up" - even if Iraq agrees!

[Sionnach Glic]

And in other news, rain is wet.

Seriously, is anyone surprised at that?

[Mikey]

I'm not surprised by al-Sadr being a loose cannon; but he claims to support his "beloved Iraq," yet will fight any agreement with violence - even ones which Iraq supports.

[Tsukiyumi]

That guy is an asshat.