Assuming Obama wins...

[Graham Kennedy]

What next for the Republicans?

One the one hand they might decide that they need to reform and try to recapture the center ground. On the other, they might go the "we aren't right wing enough" route.

To this non-American, it seems pretty obvious that the GOP has gone too far to the right. You can't seriously argue that Americans are thinking that McCain isn't right wing enough for them so they are going to vote for Obama instead! What they need to do is distance themselves from the far right. And they would likely even be safe in doing so; no doubt the right would squeal like a bunch of little piggies if the Republicans ditched faith based initiatives, came out against creationism in schools, even softened their line on abortion. But ultimately... what can the right really do about it? The stark truth is that they either vote Republican or they get a Democrat in office. If the party says "you ain't getting x, y and z, live with it or live with a permanent democratic white house", it's really no choice at all.

There's a but, and it's a big but. A good many of the far right don't ground their politics in common sense or reasonableness. They want what they want because they honestly believe that god almighty himself has ordained it. Will their mindset accept the idea that they should compromise on these things for the sake of success? Because if they don't... this could be the start of a long, dark night for the Republican party. At the very least, a two term Obama government, and maybe another Democrat after that. Or possibly even the nightmare scenario... the Republican right splits off and forms a third party, splitting the right of center vote and giving the Democrats a run in government that could last decades.

So what next for the Republicans? Reform, or denial leading to who knows what?

[Mikey]

It depends on how the outcome of the election is spun. If the (probably correct) assumption is made that McCain could have done better by sticking with his prior "I'll buck the GOP line if it's the right thing to do" ideals, rather than his current "I'll toe the GOP line for the sake of a campaign" philosophy, then the Republicans will really have no choice but to moderate themselves. If there appear to be early grounds to attack an Obama administration on liberal policies, then they will armadillo themselves into the stance of separation from the left.

[Monroe]

From a historical standpoint what we have right now is the perfect time for a new party to emerge. 1/3rd of the public aren't demo or republicans. Many republicans aren't neocon but more Ron Paul-ish. You have a great opportunity right now for a third party to emerge.

The party would be sort of the McCain-Romney-Liberman of sort of conservative but very democratic views (Despite what they tell the public) and maybe some of the more conseratives from the democrats. Richards is pretty conservative. Hillary is too.

Then you have the right wingers and neocons staying Republican. The democrats now more liberal. And a third middle ground.

Then within two elections the middle ground will gain in popularity and the republicans will all abandon ship besides maybe some Supreme Court justices like what happened with the Federalist and you have the making of the Democrats and the -blank-. Its happened several times in American history and where we are now, in my opinion, it could very well happen again.

[Teaos]

I doubt the Republican party will ever split, america can't support three big parties and they split their voting base.

Honesly I think this could be good for the party, they can now see how little effect the old Rovian tactics were this election and they may ditch them (finally).

The republicans need a shake up and this seems like it.

[Graham Kennedy]

We had this exact thing happen in the UK, but in reverse. Labour lost an election in 79 and decided that it was because they weren't left wing enough. The appointed Michael Foot as their leader, whowas so far left they'd be screaming about Communism if he was a US politico. A bunch of MPs jumped ship and set up a third party, which split their vote in the next election and handed it to Thatcher again - who was helped by both that and the fact that we'd won the Flaklands war the year before. The third party has morphed and changed around a bit since then, but it's still there to this day; a minor force compared to the other two, but still a significant factor.

[Grundig]

Conservatism is doing us no favors over here. I still can't believe so many Americans believe in Intelligent Design. There aren't enough bricks in the world to knock sense into those wackos.

Obama seems like a great candidate, but the skeptic in me has the heebiejeebies. I mean, if something seems too good to be true, chances are that it is. And even if he's a great president, there's only so much he can do. The US needs a good Republican party. A one-party system, even if it agrees with my personal opinions, just ain't no good. I honestly don't know if either party is very good for us at this point.

[Monroe]

The US needs a good Republican party. A one-party system, even if it agrees with my personal opinions, just ain't no good.

Totally true. Which is why I think my post about a third party forming would work best. Because America has always shown it can only tolerate two. So when a third party does appear one of the others dies off. And the Republican one would be that party. So the new middle party would become the new right party but its views would be more moderate and modern. That's how politics change over time. Today's conservatives were yesteryear's liberals.

[Mikey]

Well, after reading an excellent analysis in the latest Newsweek, I think Obama (and more importantly, Biden) can make some heavy inroads into the GOP if they play their cards right. The US is by nature a conservative animal - just one which may be getting fed up with the way that the stated "conservative" party is headed.

Jon Meacham's Newsweek article

[Sionnach Glic]

Why is it that the US only has two political parties of any importance?

[stitch626]

Because all of the others seem to be unable to survive.

[Grundig]

I think it has to do with both existing parties working together to keep a third from rising up. Thus the term 'Republicrat.'

Also, it seems that Americans like the apparent simplicity of 'either-or'. In general we are politically uninformed, so we make decisions based on gut feeling. If we had more than two parties, it would be much harder for the uninformed to make up their minds. "I like that guy because he looks like me."

Also, Mikey is right in that we are generally a conservative nation, and that plays into it too because the 2-party system has been around for a long time (though it hasn't always been these two), and to many it seems to have worked wonders so far... So, if it ain't broke, don't fix it! Personally, I live by the variation, "if it ain't broke, fix it til it is."

I have a question about an Obama presidency. Where does he stand on Intelligent Design? How about the separation of Church and State? Up to this point I've assumed he was with me, believing in evolution and a secular government. But he is quite devout, (right? Bill Maher thinks that both he and McCain are closet agnostics) and now I wonder where Obama will stand when Religion and Government meet.

[Monroe]

Well if you start having more than say four political parties you give tiny parties a lot of power because of colalitions forming. Take Italy for example. Tiny parties swing a lot of power.

[Teaos]

New Zealand currently has 7 parties at the moment and it looks like we will have 5 come the next election (2 weeks). It works well enough.

[Sionnach Glic]

We have around six or seven parties over here, and coalition governments are quite common. Our current goverment (probably due to collapse in a few weeks) is an alliance between Fianna Faíl and the Green Party. Of course, due to the BS both of those parties tried to pull with the 2009 budget I don't expect to see another government headed by either of them for quite a while.

[Mikey]

I don't think Obama's personal faith will factor too much into policy. Remember, he is a Protestant of one of the much later foundings, and not a member of a particularly heirarchical faith.