Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

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sunnyside
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Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

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Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned President Barack Obama against pressing Tehran about new revelations that Iran has been constructing a secret uranium-enrichment plant. "If I were Obama's adviser, I would definitely advise him to refrain making this statement because it is definitely a mistake," Ahmadinejad told TIME in New York on Friday. "It would definitively be a mistake." His comment came as President Obama, speaking at the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh, made a dramatic announcement that Iran has been constructing a second uranium-enrichment facility whose existence had been kept secret in violation of the non-proliferation agreements to which Tehran is a signatory.

But in an exclusive interview with the editors of TIME that coincided with Obama's announcement, Ahmadinejad insisted Iran was not keeping anything from the IAEA. "We have no secrecy, we work within the framework of the IAEA," he said. Still, the Iranian leader seemed nonplussed by the news that Obama was revealing the Qom plant's existence. Ahmadinejad's response meandered from the defensive to the aggressive. "This does not mean we must inform Mr. Obama's administration of every facility that we have," he said, warning that if Obama brings up the uranium facility, it "simply adds to the list of issues to which the United States owes the Iranian nation an apology over." And he boasted that Obama's "mistakes" work in Iran's favor.

Western officials say the site is less extensive than the main enrichment plant at Natanz, containing only 3,000 centrifuges. (Natanz currently has 8,308 installed). And it is still under construction and not yet producing enriched uranium, the officials say. As in the case of Natanz, the second plant's existence was initially kept secret and only acknowledged when Iran was confronted with evidence of its existence.

But Obama's attempt to hold Iran to account may disappoint many who have been closely tracking the U.S. effort to back Tehran away from the nuclear threshold - not because the President showed any lack of resolve, but because the resolve of others remains in question. The British and French leaders were adamant in their support, Sarkozy warning that "If by December there is not an in-depth change by the Iranian leaders," tough new sanctions would be applied. Prime Minister Brown called the new development the greatest challenge facing the international community. But Germany, which has recently shown reticence to expand sanctions without approval from the entire European Union, was inexplicably absent from the event. Obama was left to explain that Chancellor Angela Merkel had a more pressing engagement. More important, after hinting in recent days that Russia might be willing to support broader sanctions against Iran, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev was absent from the rostrum, as was Chinese leader Hu Jintao. Both men are present in Pittsburgh for the G-20. Statements may come from those three countries expressing concern over the new disclosures, but their failure to appear alongside Obama in confronting the Iranians on the secret plant underscores Obama's difficulty in building a coalition to pressure Iran.

European diplomats played down Germany's absence from the stage, and say the Germans may be still willing to back tough sanctions, having only learned the details of the new plant this week. "From the feedback we got from them, I think they will go along" with new sanctions, says one senior European diplomat. Russia and China are less likely to be impressed by the new information, says the diplomat, noting that they continue to have, "different, conflicting views" from the Western powers about further sanctions. Medvedev said Thursday in Pittsburgh, "I do not believe sanctions are the best way to achieve results," but added that if incentives don't work, "we'll consider other options."

The absence of Germany, Russia and China from Friday's announcement was all the more disappointing given the fact that the U.S. has spent more than a year in careful deliberations aimed at securing a consensus among all six countries whose representatives will meet with Iranian negotiators in Geneva next week. The U.S. strategy, devised and implemented by Obama's top Iran advisor, Dennis Ross was to set up a clear choice for Iran: engage in broad talks without precondition aimed at bringing its nuclear program back into line with international agreements, or face the "crippling sanctions" of which Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned last spring. Last spring, Ross and others had spoken of the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh as the pivotal moment, at which the Iranians would be confronted with an international united front demanding immediate compliance under threat of tough consequences.
(See pictures of people around the world protesting Iran's election.)

Iran has proven adept over the years at dividing the international community, weakening the affect of past sanctions and buying time to advance its nuclear program, which by now has stockpiled enough low-enriched uranium to enable it to produce sufficient highly enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon. It seems as if the Iranian leadership may have pulled the same trick again. Perhaps Merkel really did have a more pressing engagement - the German embassy did not immediately return calls requesting an explanation. But for all the positive spin U.S. officials had put on Russia's hints of greater willingness to support new sanctions, Medvedev's absence from the podium on Friday spoke far more loudly of the difficulty the U.S. faces in mustering a durable coaltion for sanctions. Without Russia, it will be very difficult to build a united international front, even in light of Iran's new transgressions.

Source:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... ml?cnn=yes

Place your bets now on whether Iran will have nukes in the next couple years.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Mikey »

Dmitri Medvedev = Pinocchio to Putin's Gepetto. International consensus or not, I wouldn't expect Medvedev to back any effort that didn't have a rider somehow positively affecting Russia specifically.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Tyyr »

Oh yeah, sanctions always work out so well.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Aaron »

I already figure that they will get nukes, I don't much care either. Their not stupid enough to use them on NA or Europe (and they don't have the ability to reach that far yet), they'll likely use them to leverage some more power over the region.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Mikey »

Cpl Kendall wrote:I already figure that they will get nukes, I don't much care either. Their not stupid enough to use them on NA or Europe (and they don't have the ability to reach that far yet), they'll likely use them to leverage some more power over the region.
To quote the song "Who's Next" by the great Tom Lehrer:
"Israel's getting tense
Wants one in self-defense
'The Lord's our shepherd,' says the psalm
But just in case... we'd better get a bomb!"
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Aaron »

Your going to have to explain that one, I'm a little slow eh?
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Mikey »

Who's within Iran's current delivery range, also being who Iran would be least likely to shed a tear over being glassed?
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Aaron »

Mikey wrote:Who's within Iran's current delivery range, also being who Iran would be least likely to shed a tear over being glassed?
Come on Mikey, the Ayatollahs (the guys who actually run the country) are neither stupid or crazy. They know that Israel has nukes and that the US would nuke them back along with Israel if they did anything. This is purely a defencive measure, which shouldn't come as a surprise considering that the US has been acting like a dick towards them for decades and stomping around in there playground, as well as a way to exert control over the locals. In other words they want to be able to do the same stuff the US does, in their own backyard.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Sionnach Glic »

Iran will develop nuclear weapons at some point or another in the near future. Pretty much the only thing that's going to put a stop to such plans is an Iraq-style invasion, which simply isn't going to happen. So we need to look at what will happen when (not if) Iran gets nukes.

To be perfectly honest, I see them becoming a new North Korea. It rattles its sabre every now and again, but does fuck all other than piss its neighbours off. Iran's leadership hates Israel, but they don't hate it enough to start a nuclear war that would certainly lead to their utter destruction.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Mikey »

Cpl Kendall wrote:the Ayatollahs (the guys who actually run the country) are neither stupid or crazy.
Currently. Khomeini was crazy, if not stupid; and only time will tell about the next one. That's like saying all popes build bridges; JP II certainly did, but I don't think anyone would say the same about Benedict Brownshirt.
Cpl Kendall wrote:They know that Israel has nukes and that the US would nuke them back along with Israel if they did anything.
I'm not sure about the last bit. Obama has been decidedly less of an Israel apologist than his predecessors; and the current state of Israeli internal politics has done nothing to endear them to us any further.
Cpl Kendall wrote:This is purely a defencive measure, which shouldn't come as a surprise considering that the US has been acting like a dick towards them for decades and stomping around in there playground, as well as a way to exert control over the locals.
Agreed on all counts, but Iran has consistently taken "exert control over the locals" to hyperbolic extremes.

I tend to agree that it wouldn't come to the extreme of nuclear aggression, but the best evidence I have for that is Iran's complete lack of response save for angry letters to the editor when Israel bombed Iranian reactor complexes.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Aaron »

Mikey wrote:
Currently. Khomeini was crazy, if not stupid; and only time will tell about the next one. That's like saying all popes build bridges; JP II certainly did, but I don't think anyone would say the same about Benedict Brownshirt.
Then why isn't the US and it's populace pissing itself over Pakistan? They have actual nukes, a proven delivery system and factions of their government supply the Taliban.
I'm not sure about the last bit. Obama has been decidedly less of an Israel apologist than his predecessors; and the current state of Israeli internal politics has done nothing to endear them to us any further.
I am sure that would political suicide, Israel is America's ally. The international community would demand retribution for it anyways and the US is the worlds self-appointed cop.
Agreed on all counts, but Iran has consistently taken "exert control over the locals" to hyperbolic extremes.

I tend to agree that it wouldn't come to the extreme of nuclear aggression, but the best evidence I have for that is Iran's complete lack of response save for angry letters to the editor when Israel bombed Iranian reactor complexes.
That was Iraq dude.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by sunnyside »

Cpl Kendall wrote:
Mikey wrote:Who's within Iran's current delivery range, also being who Iran would be least likely to shed a tear over being glassed?
Come on Mikey, the Ayatollahs (the guys who actually run the country) are neither stupid or crazy. They know that Israel has nukes and that the US would nuke them back along with Israel if they did anything. This is purely a defencive measure, which shouldn't come as a surprise considering that the US has been acting like a dick towards them for decades and stomping around in there playground, as well as a way to exert control over the locals. In other words they want to be able to do the same stuff the US does, in their own backyard.
If by "do the same stuff the US does" you mean "arm the people we like so they can kill them people we don't like", than yes I largely agree with you as they already supply Hezbollah with equipment so that rockets can be fired into Israeli cities, and I think this move is largely to give them a much freer hand to do those sorts of things.

However I think most or at least some of the world agrees that killing Jews is a bad thing these days, and so I would expect more opposition to a move like that.

I also wouldn't be shocked if somebody jumps the gun over there. Israel has the problem of not being well equipped to take out the hardened Iranian bunkers that the enrichment is going on in. On the other hand I don't think they have to. Iran has promised to hit both Israeli and US facilities if they are attacked. So Israel could simply hit the much easier to reach and destroy nuclear plant and some other lower hanging fruit and hope Iran does carry through and hit American targets.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Aaron »

sunnyside wrote:
If by "do the same stuff the US does" you mean "arm the people we like so they can kill them people we don't like", than yes I largely agree with you as they already supply Hezbollah with equipment so that rockets can be fired into Israeli cities, and I think this move is largely to give them a much freer hand to do those sorts of things.

However I think most or at least some of the world agrees that killing Jews is a bad thing these days, and so I would expect more opposition to a move like that.
Right but it's OK to kill the brown folk all you like right?
I also wouldn't be shocked if somebody jumps the gun over there. Israel has the problem of not being well equipped to take out the hardened Iranian bunkers that the enrichment is going on in. On the other hand I don't think they have to. Iran has promised to hit both Israeli and US facilities if they are attacked. So Israel could simply hit the much easier to reach and destroy nuclear plant and some other lower hanging fruit and hope Iran does carry through and hit American targets.
I would be, the Iranians are not the insane fools America makes them out to be. Their President is little more then a figure head and during the time since their revolution to now they haven't done much to bring down the wrath of either the US or Israel. I have no reason to believe that they are anymore dangerous then anyone else with nukes.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Mikey »

Cpl Kendall wrote:Then why isn't the US and it's populace pissing itself over Pakistan? They have actual nukes, a proven delivery system and factions of their government supply the Taliban.
What? I'm not sure how this relates. I don't believe that Pakistan is run de facto by the Iranian Ayatollahs.
Cpl Kendall wrote:I am sure that would political suicide, Israel is America's ally.
It might be, we'll see.
Cpl Kendall wrote:That was Iraq dude.
Beg pardon, I'd been reading a bunch of studies outlining the feasibility of Israeli aggression against Iranian nuclear facilities, and it just crossed over with the the other story in my feeble little brain.
Cpl Kendall wrote:Right but it's OK to kill the brown folk all you like right?
Of course not - the Jews just have better PR. Plus, we have the benefit of not having had a fringe sect of Judaism murder tens of thousands of people in terrorist attacks over the last decade.
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Re: Managed to stop worrying and love the bomb yet?

Post by Aaron »

Mikey wrote:
What? I'm not sure how this relates. I don't believe that Pakistan is run de facto by the Iranian Ayatollahs.
It's an illustration of how much hypocrisy there is in US politics. Pakistan has highly religious elements in it's government, it's security agencies are known supporters of terrorism and insurgents, it has actual nukes and an actual delivery system. So why Iran and not Pakistan?

It might be, we'll see.
I suppose we will.

Beg pardon, I'd been reading a bunch of studies outlining the feasibility of Israeli aggression against Iranian nuclear facilities, and it just crossed over with the the other story in my feeble little brain.
lol, no biggie.

Of course not - the Jews just have better PR. Plus, we have the benefit of not having had a fringe sect of Judaism murder tens of thousands of people in terrorist attacks over the last decade.
Right...we just had the Israeli government invade Lebanon twice and generally stomp all over Palestine killing people willy nilly. They even attacked a US ship, tried to attack a German and French ship as well as bomb UN OP's.

But your correct, they have better PR and their milking the holocaust for all it's worth.
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