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Okay, there's been a lot of controversy over Israel and the US' undying support for it ever since the country came into being.
But let's say that, for whatever reason, the US decided "fuck it, we're not supporting them any more" (maybe a new anti-Israel government came to power, or Israel did something so bad that the US didn't want to be associated with it any more, or maybe the US just got fed up with what they were doing over there, etc).

So the US cuts off the supplies of arms and money to Israel, and will not veto any sanctions levelled against Israel by the UN.

So what's the likely outcome of such a scenario?
How does this affect the US?
How does it affect Israel's foreign policy, and its policy towards its more controversial actions?
How does this affect the ME as a whole?

US aid to Israel last year was $3 billion. The Israeli defence budget is $18 billion, so while it's a big hefty chunk, it presumably wouldn't be a disasterous loss in those terms. And with Israel's GDP at $180 billion, you have to assume they could make up that money if they really wanted to badly enough.

Of much, much bigger import would be the fact that the IDF uses huge numbers of US weapons and systems. I don't know if they just buy stuff in or manufacture it under license, but surely being cut off from your major supplier would have big implications in terms of spares, ammunition, etc. I'd think it would cripple them for years.

GrahamKennedy wrote:US aid to Israel last year was $3 billion. The Israeli defence budget is $18 billion, so while it's a big hefty chunk, it presumably wouldn't be a disasterous loss in those terms. And with Israel's GDP at $180 billion, you have to assume they could make up that money if they really wanted to badly enough.

Of much, much bigger import would be the fact that the IDF uses huge numbers of US weapons and systems. I don't know if they just buy stuff in or manufacture it under license, but surely being cut off from your major supplier would have big implications in terms of spares, ammunition, etc. I'd think it would cripple them for years.

Part of the aid is a gift and part of it is in some sort of bizarre weapons trade scheme where the US gives them money but the Israeli's promise to spend it on US weapons. There was an article I read during the last clusterfuck in Lebanon that mentioned the US rushing a bunch of MRLS rounds to Israel because they had expended most of their stock, so I get the impression that Israel doesn't keep large stocks of crap around. Perhaps prefering to rely on the US to bail it out.

And of course they are cut out from a fair amount of stuff like the JF because of their history of seeling advanced kit to China.

IIRC, that's the reason they were basicaly told "go fuck yourselves" when they asked to buy some F-22s, correct?

Rochey wrote:IIRC, that's the reason they were basicaly told "go f**k yourselves" when they asked to buy some F-22s, correct?

Yeah, they had previously sold some missile and radar tech to the Chinese and are now somewhere far down the "we trust you list". Not that they need the F-22 or F-35 anyways, their military tech and training are already significantly ahead of their competition.

Israel already has enough advanced tech to keep it safe for awhile, but with the loss of aid and the military support every year would bring them closer to collapse.

The biggest point you mention is the US stopping veto of anything against Israel, that would crew them pretty quickly.

As far as materiel, aside from aircraft the biggest portions of Israeli kit are homegrown (or, for armor, they supplement the different marks of Merkava with British tanks.) They wouldn't really have an issue with the people who are Israel's current antagonists; the real issue would be losing their big brother when it comes to global politics.

Yeah Israel would be far more hesitant in blockading aid shipments to 1.4 million people if they though UN sanctions could actually go through.

I don't know about that last part. The threat of UN sanctions didn't stop Burma, and they were blocking aid to their own citizenry - not people who were killing their citizenry.

Mikey wrote:As far as materiel, aside from aircraft the biggest portions of Israeli kit are homegrown (or, for armor, they supplement the different marks of Merkava with British tanks.) They wouldn't really have an issue with the people who are Israel's current antagonists; the real issue would be losing their big brother when it comes to global politics.

Well they use a bunch of US and foreign kit but most of it is stuff they could make themselves, it doesn't take much to build M-16's. They do have problems getting advanced military kit though, those British tanks you mention? There Centurions, they also use a bunch of M-60's, captured Arab shite and a hodgpodge of other stuff. If it weren't for the fact that their enemies are incompetant, they'd have been overrun a long time ago.

Losing US backing would be horrible for them, an arms embargo, sanctions, blockade etc could all swiftly follow. Cue mass famine and other unpleasentness.

Their personal arms are second to none. IDI (or Golan, I don't remember which) make the best bullpup assault rifle in the world; their counter-terrorism tech is on par with the US'; and as far as armor - yes, they supplement the Merkava IV with slightly obsolete international crap, but the Merkava IV itself is a hell of a tank (and probably more survivable for the crew than even an Abrams.)

Where they'd really suffer, as far as materiel, is in aircraft. I'd assume that "loss of backing" would coincide with "no more sales."