The Euro zone

[Deepcrush]

It was late and maybe I understood you wrong but I took the same meaning from your quote than Seafort, namely that only the current economic chaos and problems are keeping the europeans from each others throat.

I said that it gives them something else to worry about. Your inability to understand context or history isn't my concern.

The opposite is true, while the economic chaos and strict regulations of the euro zone might question certain member states the wisdom of joining the euro-zone or the eu (greece comes to mind because of the economy, but also hungary and czech for political reasons) if everything would be peachy and fine and no problems at all, there would even be LESS cause for concern.

I'm sure glad to hear how if it weren't for financial concerns, Europe would be one big happy family. The lack of wars throughout European history of course supports that...

And with one simple sentence you have proven your utter ignorance of european history. Not only that they were not perceived as a threat after two great wars of being the aggressors (boy, just watch some educational films shown to US-occupation troops in 45, warning them and blabbering on about the oh so warlike germans only waiting to start wwIII. Or even what Margereth Thatcher thought of german reunification in the late 80s ) they were also much needed immediatly after wwII against the soviet union.

As much as I want to believe that the allies have learned from the Versailles treaties, I imagine the bulk of goodwill shown to the germans after wwII stems exactly from that they had already more pressing concerns, so better to make friends with them opposed to drive them into the USSR open arms.

Really? You cry about my ignorance on this topic? The US didn't treat anyone in any Versailles fashion because the US opposed it. It was in fact part of the US position at the end of the war to NOT destroy what was left but to rebuild Germany. Rather then watching youtube for your history lessons, try going to a school. Then consider talking to me. When you do that you can show me this phantom army the Germans must have had to make England so afraid of them. That or maybe get one of our English members here to talk about the great German army after the war.

Hey, I am all for keeping our hands over the precious spice, my point was more that I found it rather interesting that you implied european aggression (only the euro troubles keeping them from going to war) when historically the most warlike and aggressive nation since wwII were the united states. If the history of the last 50 years is any indication Europe is more likely to use economical pressure to achieve it's goals opposed to walzing in with raw force as the US is prone to do and while the hard way of the US is surley more effective in the short run, one might question the wisdom in the long run imho.

Really? so you're going to discount the whole of history down to just fifty years and say that the US is at fault for it? Not the RNK for the Korean war, the French in Vietnam, not Iraq for the first Gulf War, not Afgahistan for that current war. Sure, I would love to see this "aggression" since you've made it so clear that only the US is at fault for any wars that happen...

Well you probably weren't aware of what I am getting at, which is that Greece should never have joined the EURO zone because they never fulfilled the convergence criteria which where obligatory prior to joining. They only were able to join because it was discovered later that they cooked their books. Now don't tell me everyone did this because I do still remember one of many austerity packets my country had to endure just to meet those criteria and be able to join. The greece took the easy road out and should have been punished for it.

(On the other hand maybe you are right, if they'd done it, they would probably would have been forced to kick Italy, Spain and Portugal out as well............hmm....I always suspected the climate in those countries is to beautiful for their own good.... )

Since its rather clear that the statement went over your head most like everything else ever said to you. Governments can't write down all their spending for everyone else to see, because you don't want everyone knowing what you're doing. The EU rather then just looking to dump money on the problem should have just sent someone to help Greece balance the books.

[Atekimogus]

It was late and maybe I understood you wrong but I took the same meaning from your quote than Seafort, namely that only the current economic chaos and problems are keeping the europeans from each others throat.

I said that it gives them something else to worry about. Your inability to understand context or history isn't my concern.

Ok then, let's be blunt. I found your statement incredibly dumb and backwards, above statement is me trying to be polite, something clearly lost and wasted on you.

I'm sure glad to hear how if it weren't for financial concerns, Europe would be one big happy family. The lack of wars throughout European history of course supports that...

Times have changed, financal concerns or not, noone really has the juice to start a major war simply because they are economical and industrial far to connected to start ANYTHING on their own. So yes, they might wage war outside of europe but the chance that anything will happen on the continent are slim at best.

And not only that, also - altough I can only speak for the german/austrian part of europe - the support in the population isn't there. We are all but intoctrinated how evil and bad war is to the point where everyone thinks it is a bad idea no matter what. Heck I still remember the commotion in germany because they sent soldiers to afganistan, "what an outrage, have we not learned anything from history" etc.etc. .

But then this would be recent history, something I don't expect to you know since you stopped your education at ww2 or the late 50s, or so it seems.

Really? You cry about my ignorance on this topic? The US didn't treat anyone in any Versailles fashion because the US opposed it. It was in fact part of the US position at the end of the war to NOT destroy what was left but to rebuild Germany. Rather then watching youtube for your history lessons, try going to a school. Then consider talking to me.

Cute, since I didn't specifically mentioned the US you clearly are unable to perceive more than one viewpoint. And since I stated only the outcame and wasn't discussing the "noble intentions" the US might have had I am not even sure how your babbling here is relevant. However if you want to discuss Versailles etc. I suggest doing so in a seperate topic, I fear we are going widely offtopic, agreed?

When you do that you can show me this phantom army the Germans must have had to make England so afraid of them. That or maybe get one of our English members here to talk about the great German army after the war.

Sigh...this is getting tedious since you clearly are unable to follow two lines of thought. I did not say that the Germans every where a threat after ww2, indeed if you can read between lines (oh look who I am talking to ) I even showed my amusement at the idea.

They just were treated like they were, which is a huge difference (again, maybe one you cannot perceive). I find they idea that germany might start any trouble hilarious, yet they were treated like they could to the 90s. And since we are talking EU here, the whole thing started as one big failsafe to insure they never again would consider starting a thing against france.

So yes, you might dismiss those fears as unfounded (and I would agree) but that doesn't mean they were not there and that doesn't mean that germany and austria still are viewed much more closely than anyone else in europe. (Point in case, european sanctions against Austria just because a party was voted into the government which is slightly more to the right than usual, but which is positivly harmless compared to the right stuff of Italy or Hungary. But again, recent european history....not sure you even know about that, why would you, not your continent but then do not come here and try to teach me my own history, fool. (in my best Mr. T voice)

Really? so you're going to discount the whole of history down to just fifty years and say that the US is at fault for it? Not the RNK for the Korean war, the French in Vietnam, not Iraq for the first Gulf War, not Afgahistan for that current war. Sure, I would love to see this "aggression" since you've made it so clear that only the US is at fault for any wars that happen...

It's like talking to a child. Today the US are far more likely to start a war than the EU, that was my statement in short. Reaction: waah, wahh waah....we only do it because european colonization messed the planet up, the RNK is to blame, the french are to blame waah wahh...............completely offtopic and missing the point.

And again, today the US are far more likely to start a war then the EU. Do you REALLY dispute this? Just because 200 years ago the situation was different and the europeans where quick to defend their interests with military force?

Obviously you take "history repeats itself" far to literal, evenmoreso where nations are concerned. The huns won't invade europe in the forseeable future, the chinese won't build another wall to keep them out and the egyptians are done building geometrical constructs. So yes, I can safely dismiss history prior to the last five decades or so if I want to extrapolate current trends and behavior.

Since its rather clear that the statement went over your head most like everything else ever said to you. Governments can't write down all their spending for everyone else to see, because you don't want everyone knowing what you're doing. The EU rather then just looking to dump money on the problem should have just sent someone to help Greece balance the books.

They can't? It took my 3 seconds finding the budget for my country for 2012 on the ministeral homepage, since the budget in my country is a law, so everyone must be able to see what was decided upon. And altough the rather vague document in excess of 200 pages lacks detailed information it is enough for Joe Six-Pack to get a basic idea where the money went. If you have time and knowledge you could even dig deeper but then we enter the sphere of auditing firms etc.

My point is governments write things down for everyone to see, they are just protected by the enormous mass of information even experts have a hard time sifting through, and that is assuming that everything was done correctly.

I don't know how the US handles it of course, you telling me you cannot request a detailed account of your countries budget? (Again, not that it would do you much good anyway if you don't have time for a few months studying it all and verify that all the money indeed went were it says it did.)

As for sending them accountants to help them with their books......great idea, except you cannot do that. I would just LOVE to hear the commotion as soon as the chinese demand to audit the US because they fear that they don't have a grip on their finances anymore.

All you can do is give them as much political pressure as possible so that they start to take things seriously and maybe start bringing their house in order.

[Mikey]

They can't? It took my 3 seconds finding the budget for my country for 2012 on the ministeral homepage, since the budget in my country is a law, so everyone must be able to see what was decided upon. And altough the rather vague document in excess of 200 pages lacks detailed information it is enough for Joe Six-Pack to get a basic idea where the money went. If you have time and knowledge you could even dig deeper but then we enter the sphere of auditing firms etc.

My point is governments write things down for everyone to see, they are just protected by the enormous mass of information even experts have a hard time sifting through, and that is assuming that everything was done correctly.

If you believe that your government - that ANY government - honestly possesses that level of transparency and forthrightness, you are rather naive.

I would just LOVE to hear the commotion as soon as the chinese demand to audit the US because they fear that they don't have a grip on their finances anymore.

Flawed analogy - China and the U.S.A. aren't part of some economic confederacy together the way Greece and Germany, France, etc. are. China has no basis to do so with the U.S.; EU nations - comprising parts of the EU which is attempting to assist Greece as another member nation - has every right to do so with Greece.

All you can do is give them as much political pressure as possible so that they start to take things seriously and maybe start bringing their house in order.

That's not only not all you can do, it's pretty much shutting the barn door after the cows have gone. You should have made sure they had their house in order (and everyone else had theirs, too) before granting them admittance into your little club. At the point to which it has come, you can (and should) do far more than just asking them sternly to clean up their act. You can send in multilateral oversight (not my favorite idea, but you guys all decided to join the club together,) you can provide zero-coupon loans, you can bond them, or in extremis you can call them too much of a liability to your tree-house and tell them that their services are no longer required and they can go back to using the drachma.

[Atekimogus]

If you believe that your government - that ANY government - honestly possesses that level of transparency and forthrightness, you are rather naive.

Never said that, but there is a difference between incorrect or flawed information and no information at all. I said they don't really need to bother hidding stuff because the sheer amount of information makes it all but impossible to find any shady dealings if you want to hide them, even professional auditing firms have a hard time sorting through that stuff and chances are that most things will only get noticed if there is a major screw up, like in greece.

But again, not the same as not having books at all, as Deep implied.

Flawed analogy - China and the U.S.A. aren't part of some economic confederacy together the way Greece and Germany, France, etc. are. China has no basis to do so with the U.S.; EU nations - comprising parts of the EU which is attempting to assist Greece as another member nation - has every right to do so with Greece.

Well the analogy is only flawed if you truly believe that the member states of the EU feel so fondly about each other that they wouldn't view this as meddling into their private financial affairs.

They don't, hence demonstration in greece against germany and france because they demanded a strict austerity policy from greece in exchange for help.

All you can do is give them as much political pressure as possible so that they start to take things seriously and maybe start bringing their house in order.

That's not only not all you can do, it's pretty much shutting the barn door after the cows have gone. You should have made sure they had their house in order (and everyone else had theirs, too) before granting them admittance into your little club. At the point to which it has come, you can (and should) do far more than just asking them sternly to clean up their act. You can send in multilateral oversight (not my favorite idea, but you guys all decided to join the club together,) you can provide zero-coupon loans, you can bond them, or in extremis you can call them too much of a liability to your tree-house and tell them that their services are no longer required and they can go back to using the drachma.

Ok, what you described is pretty much what I understood with political pressure, short of sending them people over to do their books.

[Mikey]

Never said that, but there is a difference between incorrect or flawed information and no information at all. I said they don't really need to bother hidding stuff because the sheer amount of information makes it all but impossible to find any shady dealings if you want to hide them, even professional auditing firms have a hard time sorting through that stuff and chances are that most things will only get noticed if there is a major screw up, like in greece.

But again, not the same as not having books at all, as Deep implied.

Still not quite the same. If you think, for example, that the German government publishes accurate costing of Kommando Spezialkrafte funding, you are nuts (and Germany would be to do so.)

Well the analogy is only flawed if you truly believe that the member states of the EU feel so fondly about each other that they wouldn't view this as meddling into their private financial affairs.

They don't, hence demonstration in greece against germany and france because they demanded a strict austerity policy from greece in exchange for help.

No, it's still flawed - it may very well be viewed as meddling in private affairs... but, oh well. You guys all agreed to join the club together. China and the U.S. did nothing of the sort. There may be demonstrations in Greece, but like many such demonstrations they ignore the basic fact that Greece voluntarily joined the EU and voluntarily accepted Western European assistance. The U.S. has done nothing of the sort WRT China, save taking loans. If the U.S. was unhappy with the conditions of the Chinese loans, we had two options: deal with it, or don't take the loans. We are under no obligation to open our books to China if we decide not to do so.

Ok, what you described is pretty much what I understood with political pressure, short of sending them people over to do their books.

What I described is light-years beyond political pressure. What I described is, in fact, explicitly the same as sending people to take over their books (again, not ideal but you guys all agreed to be part of the network) as well as certain assistance mechanisms beyond guaranteed-default loans and direct aid.

[SolkaTruesilver]

The China/America analogy is deeply flawed for a large number of reasons. The USA hasn't surrendered their monetary policy into anybody else's hands like the Eurozone members (like Greece) did. Since Germany is the one who contributes best to the Euro's financing and stability, they are the ones calling the most shots.

Also, the European emergency funds has been financed and can only step in if pre-conditions are met regarding austerity measures. Therefore, audit HAS to be pre-agreed before the money changed hands. Where as the USA don't owe China any damn things beyond the standardized debt covenant. The USA must show it's books to it's own citizens/taxpayers ages before they'll have to show them to China or any other creditors. In the eventuality that China starts making conditions to the Feds regarding it's willingness to use it's trade surplus's product to finance American debt, this might change. But not bloody likely anytime soon. China has a lot of economical issues it want concession from the US first before going as far as putting their nose in America's books.

Greece didn't had that sort of leverage over Germany. They were the party in need. China/USA relationships are heavily tilted in America's favor, regardless of what some silly "America is weak" doomsday pseudoprophets like to say. Americans pundists just love to clamor their country's current downfall and use it as political points.

[Mikey]

Exactly. In the (unlikely) event that China were to say, "The yuan stops here until we can inspect your books," America could easily say, "NP - go away." Greece can't because it agreed to become a member of an economic cabal which subsequently has an interest in Greece and will take steps to aid Greece even if the Greeks were to say, "No thanks." Greece's option isn't to decline help if it comes with undesired criteria; it's option is rather to bow out of the EU and flounder by itself.

[SolkaTruesilver]

Well, the strange thing is, in a perverse way, The Chinese Yuen needs more the American debt than the American Debt needs the Yuen. China is dependent on a way to expulse the currency it generates with it's trade surplus, or there would be either a massive inflation pressure internally (a problem China already struggles with regarding energy and food commodities) if the surplus currency is the Yuen, or there will be an intolerable pressure on the Yuen/USD conversion rate internally in China, which would also increase inflation and further economic problems.

American debts is the most optimal ways to funnel the mieu back into America, since it will also help American government expenditure which leads to increase in American consumption, so better export for China.

Problem is, the Americans are starting to be worried about their debt, so China have to find alternative cash-drop opportunities. China openly considered helping financing the European Emergency fund, you know? It's just one more location to dump their cash surplus, which would help European consumption and may even yield diplomatic concessions if a deal had been struct. But i don't think it had, or if it has, I haven't heard of it.

[Mikey]

I wasn't aware of the cash-surplus problem in China of that magnitude, but it certainly makes sense. The only problem with the European solution is that the Euro nations who would most need to take on Chinese debt have the least to offer in return (I should say, the least to offer which China would want) compared to the U.S.

[Atekimogus]

Still not quite the same. If you think, for example, that the German government publishes accurate costing of Kommando Spezialkrafte funding, you are nuts (and Germany would be to do so.)

http://www.bmvg.de/portal/a/bmvg/!ut/p/ ... GD5nD8bI!/

Again, not very detailed, (altough links are provided for more detailed documents, see right hand corner) but more than enough to get a feeling about the order of magnitude where money is going and what they do with their defensive budget.

As for publishing, read again my last statement, I said there is a difference between flawed/falsified/wrong information and no information at all. Will I - as a private individual - have access to the accurate costing of the Kommando Spezialstreitkräfte? I doubt it. But that doesn't mean they don't bother writing it down and that doesn't mean they cannot be helld accountable if someone suspects foul play. And THAT is a huge difference to what Deep was stating which was:

Governments can't write down all their spending for everyone else to see, because you don't want everyone knowing what you're doing

They can and they do and under certain circumstances they are forced to release this information, or we would never have found out that the greece were rather liberal in their bookkeeping.

No, it's still flawed - it may very well be viewed as meddling in private affairs... but, oh well. You guys all agreed to join the club together. China and the U.S. did nothing of the sort. There may be demonstrations in Greece, but like many such demonstrations they ignore the basic fact that Greece voluntarily joined the EU and voluntarily accepted Western European assistance.

Yes the analogy may be flawed but I still think you HIGHLY overestimate how far member states are willing to give up their sovereignity in financal matters just because the are in the EU. It would make no differnece whatsoever to the Greece if the germans tried to meddle in their private affairs or the chinese - in a hypothetical scenario where they were indebted to the chinese and not primarily to the EU.

Having a member state nearly going bancrupt wasn't something which was covered in the membership-clause. There was no "Welcome to the EU, oh and in case you are about to go bancrupt, be prepared to have the biggest creditor taking over your bookkeeping and decide about national spending policy! Have a nice day!" paragraph.

(But then I do understand your sentiment here, heck there are a lot people even here you think joining the EU was like selling your countries soul to the devil and while that might be debatable, all I am pointing out is that joining the EU went hand in hand with certain duties and rights. Having your countries budget entirely dictated by the EU was afaik not one of them.

(At least until now, if it get's any worse we will see what they come up with.....it's not like the Greece at this point have much choice other than to do than they are told anyhow, direct control over their budget or not.)

Ah well...the EU......I can't bring myself to hate it entirely......but it is such a hugely flawed moloch.......sometimes it feels like a huge train you know is going to crash but you cannot stop it anymore and you cannot look away out of sheer morbid curiosity.

[Mikey]

http://www.bmvg.de/portal/a/bmvg/!ut/p/ ... 1-GD5nD8bI!/

Again, not very detailed, (altough links are provided for more detailed documents, see right hand corner) but more than enough to get a feeling about the order of magnitude where money is going and what they do with their defensive budget.

I unfortunately have never had the opportunity to become literate in German.

As for publishing, read again my last statement, I said there is a difference between flawed/falsified/wrong information and no information at all. Will I - as a private individual - have access to the accurate costing of the Kommando Spezialstreitkräfte? I doubt it. But that doesn't mean they don't bother writing it down and that doesn't mean they cannot be helld accountable if someone suspects foul play. And THAT is a huge difference to what Deep was stating which was:
Deepcrush wrote:
Governments can't write down all their spending for everyone else to see, because you don't want everyone knowing what you're doing

They can and they do and under certain circumstances they are forced to release this information, or we would never have found out that the greece were rather liberal in their bookkeeping.

On the contrary: for purposes of judging the dissemination of accurate information, releasing flawed or incorrect information is qualitatively no better - and possibly worse - than releasing no information at all. You'd get a truer picture of German defense spending if there was no accounting of the amount budgeted to the Kommando Spezialkrafte than if you were given a wildly inaccurate accounting.

Yes the analogy may be flawed but I still think you HIGHLY overestimate how far member states are willing to give up their sovereignity in financal matters just because the are in the EU. It would make no differnece whatsoever to the Greece if the germans tried to meddle in their private affairs or the chinese - in a hypothetical scenario where they were indebted to the chinese and not primarily to the EU.

Having a member state nearly going bancrupt wasn't something which was covered in the membership-clause. There was no "Welcome to the EU, oh and in case you are about to go bancrupt, be prepared to have the biggest creditor taking over your bookkeeping and decide about national spending policy! Have a nice day!" paragraph.

You are highly misunderstanding my point. It wasn't "Greece has signed a contract stating they must give up their fiscal sovereignty." Rather, the point was that Greece must abide by EU conditions - even including direct foreign oversight - if they want to remain in the EU and/or receive assistance from EU nations, if said assistance comes with such stipulations. In other words, if Greece were to receive an aid package which included the caveat that Germany was to oversee the book-cooking for the following five years, then Greece doesn't have the option to deny German oversight. The only options Greece has is to accept the stipulation, or to refuse the aid.

[Atekimogus]

I unfortunately have never had the opportunity to become literate in German.

You should make time, it is such a beautiful language

You'd get a truer picture of German defense spending if there was no accounting of the amount budgeted to the Kommando Spezialkrafte than if you were given a wildly inaccurate accounting.

Well, true it depends probably on how inaccurate and flawed the information is to begin with. In case of greece it would be probably better to dismiss everything and start somewhere from scratch.....germany however, I am not so sure how liberal they are with it. Like us, their budget has the weight of a law which has to be agreed upon so I do think on the whole it is rather accurate. That there is still more than enough room for endless closed door agreements etc.etc. goes without saying however it is held true here that the most shaddy dealings are probably tender procurements etc.etc. but not the accounting itself.

You are highly misunderstanding my point. It wasn't "Greece has signed a contract stating they must give up their fiscal sovereignty." Rather, the point was that Greece must abide by EU conditions - even including direct foreign oversight - if they want to remain in the EU and/or receive assistance from EU nations, if said assistance comes with such stipulations. In other words, if Greece were to receive an aid package which included the caveat that Germany was to oversee the book-cooking for the following five years, then Greece doesn't have the option to deny German oversight. The only options Greece has is to accept the stipulation, or to refuse the aid.

Ah ok, yes I misunderstood your argument. Yes I agree here with you, of course they are pretty much in a do or die situation here, thanks for clearing it up.

[Mikey]

NP - to further highlight, the meat of the matter here is that the U.S. can either take or leave Chinese loan conditions.. end of story. Greece, however, can easily be told that the EU will NOT let a constituent nation flounder, and MUST either accept the aid - with any attached conditions - or be excused from the EU.

You should make time, it is such a beautiful language

I know. Unfortunately, I am only fluent in English and have a smattering of Latin, Russian, Ukrainian, and Yiddish (and of course the common phrases in French, German, and Spanish that everyone seems to know.) I'd love to learn German... right behind achieving fluency in Yiddish, Polish, Japanese...

[SolkaTruesilver]

It's not just being able to read said languages casually. It's also being able to understand their financial and legal reporting, and understanding their fiscal system.

I believe there is a LOT more work after "learning the language" required to dig into another country's books.

[Mikey]

Oh, I'm sure I wouldn't have a problem skimming the website if I could read German. Be that as it may, I'm still dubious that every mark is reported accurately and specifically.