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One would hope you're right, Graham, but there have been times that Iran has followed the path of least rationality.

I can't see them essentially committing national suicide, though. Striking Israel or the west would basically destroy their entire country, very likely including the large majority of their religious and political leadership.

There's no way Iran, or any ME nation, would ever use nukes. They know full well that launching a nuke would end with them being turned into radioactive glass by every other nation on the planet.
Nukes are great for saber ratling, but not for actualy warfare.

GrahamKennedy wrote:Suppose Iran does build nukes. Does anybody here think they would actually use them, given what would happen next?

The Iranians will never have nukes - even assuming the US doesn't bomb the crap out of them at the first sign that they're getting close, the Israelis will. With nukes, if necessary.

That last bit is dead-on. The Israelis and patience/cooler heads do not exactly have a friendly relationship.

Somehow I can't see them doing it. Nuking another country out of the blue... it would be an immense risk. Suppose Russia decided to lob a few nukes back in retaliation? Is Israel really going to run that risk?

Unless things change a great deal in the Knesset very soon, I truly believe that Israel would launch a nuclear strike (albeit as a completely last resort) before allowing Iran to launch its own.

GrahamKennedy wrote:Somehow I can't see them doing it. Nuking another country out of the blue... it would be an immense risk. Suppose Russia decided to lob a few nukes back in retaliation? Is Israel really going to run that risk?

It's a judgement call between the possibility of the Russians getting uppity, an the risk posed by a nuclear armed Iran - given the number of times Ahmadinejad has expressed a desire to wipe Israel off the map, I doubt the Israels would take too long mulling over their options.

Captain Seafort wrote:

GrahamKennedy wrote:Somehow I can't see them doing it. Nuking another country out of the blue... it would be an immense risk. Suppose Russia decided to lob a few nukes back in retaliation? Is Israel really going to run that risk?

It's a judgement call between the possibility of the Russians getting uppity, an the risk posed by a nuclear armed Iran - given the number of times Ahmadinejad has expressed a desire to wipe Israel off the map, I doubt the Israels would take too long mulling over their options.

I don't really take those kinds of threats all that seriously myself. It very much sounds like the kind of thing a man in his position is "expected" to say.

GrahamKennedy wrote:I don't really take those kinds of threats all that seriously myself.

You're probably right. For good or ill, though, someone as level-headed as yourself is not the Prime Minister of Israel.

Well, we shall see.

Now, al-Sadr says that they will violently oppose any deal for the Americans to remain in Iraq for a finite time to help finish "setting up" - even if Iraq agrees!

And in other news, rain is wet.

Seriously, is anyone surprised at that?

I'm not surprised by al-Sadr being a loose cannon; but he claims to support his "beloved Iraq," yet will fight any agreement with violence - even ones which Iraq supports.

That guy is an asshat.