Russia Russin'

[Mikey]

I was joking (halfway) in my last post, but it seems Russia is setting up excuses to intercede/attack/conquer Ukraine. It's been a bugbear of Russia ever since Stalin failed to exterminate every last Ukrainian, and add the fact that Ukraine is a pretty consistent cereal producer and has a large southern port...

[Captain Seafort]

Not to mention the somewhat unsubtle two fingers the Ukranians gave Russia with their Orange revolution a few years ago, even if that did end up going belly-up.

Having said that, I think the Russians are too busy with the war they've sucessfully provoked in Georgia at the moment to have a crack at the Ukraine. Plus Ukraine's a far tougher nut to crack than Georgia - they've got a lot of ex Soviet kit and, if I'm not mistaken, a few leftover nuclear warheads.

I also doubt the Russians intend to annex anyone - they're just flexing their muscles and thumping an overly-independant neighbour/former province for daring to disagree with them.

[Mikey]

They did have some nukes, so I assume they still do. Anyway, Ukraine seems like it would be easier to take down through espionage and subterfuge; witness the last election.

[Captain Seafort]

They certainly used to have Soviet nuclear IRBMs and SRBMs stationed there - I'm not sure how many, if any, the Russians took with them when they left.

As for the issue of a Russa-Ukraine conflict, again I very much doubt the Russians would be interested in conquest - their aim would be to weaken the country and reduce it to a de-facto vassal state that can be relied upon to do as its told, not absorb it into the Russian Federation. In that context the subtle approach would probably be more effective, but would lack the aspect of showing off that the Georgian War seems to display prominently.

[KuvahMagh]

Well the Russians have for a little while been laughing stock really, Georgia is a way to show everyone that they are back and want to be considered a real power... I mean if America, the lone superpower, can invade a sovereign nation, execute its lawful government & rape the land why can't the Russians... except that in this case the Georgians attacked first... Shall we count the days until the human rights abuses begin... or should we start with when they will abandon International Law & Treaties...

[Captain Seafort]

What do you mean by "the Georgians attacked first"? The Georgians were minding their own business (albeit with rather excessive force) before the Russians invaded. That's when international law went out the window with the invasion of a sovereign state.

[Mikey]

I think KuvahMagh was being facetious. Latest news: Medvedev doesn't respond to Georgia's call for a cease-fire, even after Georgia's troops are ordered to stop responding to Russian shelling.

[KuvahMagh]

The Area leaves Georgia in the early 90s shortly after Georgia leaves the USSR. There are Peacekeepers in the area, the fact that they are Russian makes no difference. Georgian Units move in and attack peacekeepers and citizens, Russia opens doors to refugees who flee the area with their Russian Passports, Russia then sends in troops to protect the remainder of its citizens in the area... The area didn't want to be with Georgia (they left as soon as Georgia left the USSR), they refused to accept that and tried to use force to get what they wanted.

[Mikey]

Chicken or egg. The Ossetians were offered Russian citizenship merely as an excuse for Russia to flex its muscles in the name of "protecting its citizens," not for any Russian though of goodwill for the Ossetians in particular.

[Captain Seafort]

The Area leaves Georgia in the early 90s shortly after Georgia leaves the USSR.

S. Ossetia started causing trouble back then, and was a defacto independant state for about a decade and a half. That doesn't mean it wasn't still Georgian territory, or that Georgia had given up on it - it simply didn't have the ability to enforce the state's authority. More recently they've decided to have another stab at enforcing said authority.

There are Peacekeepers in the area, the fact that they are Russian makes no difference. Georgian Units move in and attack peacekeepers and citizens, Russia opens doors to refugees who flee the area with their Russian Passports, Russia then sends in troops to protect the remainder of its citizens in the area...

"Peacekeepers" with self-propelled artillery, and air support that's been hitting towns well inside Georgia.

The area didn't want to be with Georgia (they left as soon as Georgia left the USSR), they refused to accept that and tried to use force to get what they wanted.

If they want to be Russian, go to Russia.

[Monroe]

& rape the land

Hey if we raped the land we'd be seeing some profit.

[sunnyside]

& rape the land

Hey if we raped the land we'd be seeing some profit.

I think that's the big difference people need to watch. I think this may be a straight up land grab attempt by Russia. Georgia did misplay their hand in all this (when they went after the seperatists they should have tried to get western media at the least on the ground so Russia could pull the "they're totally committing genocide" BS). But Russia has been gearing up to grab that chunk for a while.

If it gets cut into a new independent nation I'm not going to be too worried. But if they're going back to expanding the empire the world should be concerned.

[Captain Seafort]

If it gets cut into a new independent nation I'm not going to be too worried. But if they're going back to expanding the empire the world should be concerned.

To a large degree it's irrelevent whether S. Ossetia gets annexed by Russia or not (I'm leading towards it being annexed and combined with N. Ossetia). The Russians aren't really interested in traditional empire-building, but in ensuring that surrounding states are sufficiently cowed to heed the Kremlin's "suggestions". Because of this, an independent S. Ossetia would be just as worrying a development as an annexation.

[KuvahMagh]

& rape the land

Hey if we raped the land we'd be seeing some profit.

Your Government isn't seeing a profit but your companies, who used to be run and/or have connections to high profile officials have made a killing in no bid contracts, shoddy products, general profiteering...

[sunnyside]

I think the thing that really gets me is that in the end we're going to leave Iraq. And they're going to be pretty rich with their oil. But the US is still going to be taking crap for it and probably be accused of raking in the big bucks even if there aren't any US companies operating in Iraq at all.

Russia, however, may well annex South Osseta and Abkhazia and nationalize their oil pipelines. And that's just great. What could be wrong with that. Go Russia!

Ditto with china to a degree. Either in their smash face policy on conquered territories and oppressed people that get uppity or in a takeover of Taiwan.