North Korea threatens nuclear attack

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Sionnach Glic
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North Korea threatens nuclear attack

Post by Sionnach Glic »

Yep, more sabre rattling from everyone's favourite crazy communist dictatorship.
An escalating war of words across the world's last Cold War, nuclear-armed border spiraled dramatically yesterday when North Korea threatened to wreak total destruction on its neighbour to the south.

"Our military will not sit idle until warmongers launch a pre-emptive strike," the official news agency in Pyongyang reported a senior military commander as saing, "everything will be in ashes, not just a sea of fire, if our advanced pre-emptive strike once begins."

The threat was among the most direct and bellicose statements from Pyongyang since North Korea test-fired an atomic device in late 2006. International efforts since then to persuade the country's enigmatic dictator, Kim Jong il, to abandon his weapons programme have repeatedly stalled.

The threat also marked a fourth day of rapidly deteriorating relations on the Korean peninsula, which remains technically still at war despite more than 50 years of often uncomfortable armistice.

The two countries - the prosperous, modern South and the unpredictable Stalinist Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) - continue to glare at one another across the world's most heavily armed border.

A note sent by a North Korean military delegation to its South Korean counterpart on Saturday, said that "these outbursts are the gravest challenge ever in the history of the inter-Korean relations and a reckless provocation little short of a war declaration against the DPRK."

Sunday's warning followed remarks in Seoul earlier in the weekend in which the head of South Korea's military vowed to conduct a pre-emptive strike on the suspected North Korean nuclear weapons site if Pyongyang tried to attack with atomic weapons.

The office of the chairman of the South's joint chiefs of staff later explained that it was a statement of general principles, rather than a hint that the South was planning any unprovoked attack on the North. Pyongyang said that it would suspend all cross-border dialogue unless the remarks were withdrawn and an apology issued.

Although the communist regime of Kim Jong Il has regularly used this form of extreme language in the past, long-term North Korea experts said that its renewed appearance of the past few days should be treated with some caution.

The row, which has already seen 11 South Korean officials expelled from a joint economic "friendship" zone by the North, is thought to be a test by Pyongyang of the mettle of the new president in Seoul.

On Friday the DPRK test-fired a salvo of short-range missiles, reprising an act that has traditionally provoked outrage in Seoul and placed South Korean leaderships under immense domestic strain.

Lee Myung Bak was elected to the South Korean presidency in December last year on promises of a stronger economy. But he made little secret that his view towards North Korea and Kim Jong il would be far less conciliatory than his predecessor's.

His response to the current escalation of tensions will be closely scrutinised on both sides of the demilitarized zone that splits the peninsula.

In addition to the deeper conflict over Pyongyang's atomic weapons programme, the most recent row has ignited an argument over a line in the Yellow Sea that has never been recognised by North Korea: officials in Pyongyang said on Friday that "armed conflict may break out at any moment" over the boundary.
You know, this would probably be more effective if they didn't do this every Monday. :roll:
*sigh*
Just tell the NorKs to get lost. What are they going to do? Jump up and down screaming for attention even more?
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Post by Reliant121 »

This is when it gets annoying that the dictator dude is born on the same day as me -.-'
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Post by sunnyside »

We should have hit them hard in the first place when they were trying to build up the tech.

Right now I think south Korea should by buying up Patriot missile systems like candy and then we should totally cut trade and aid to the north.

It would be nice to be mostly out of Iraq and the time though. But it sounds like aside from their nukes the north isn't able to do much militarily and their delivery vehicles aren't considered that great.

The longer we wait the worse this will probably get though.

And this will be tame compared to what will happen if we let Iran get nukes.
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Post by Sionnach Glic »

Making a strike against NK would be a major mistake. Aside from the nuclear weapons, they have hundreds, if not thousands, of artillary cannons hidden in the mountains along the border. The moment an attack comes, say goodbye to Seoul and the Asian economies. Then there's the problem with fighting against a fanatical populace, that has been tought from birth that the USA, China, Japan, South Korea, and....well, pretty much everywhere else, is the devil incarnate.
The nukes are just for bluffing with. Their real strength lies in the fact that they could kill millions and sink the Asian market the moment a war broke out.
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Post by Captain Seafort »

sunnyside wrote:We should have hit them hard in the first place when they were trying to build up the tech.


We should have made it absolutely clear to the Chinese 50 years ago that we were going to stop on the Yalu River, and not keep going to invade China. This would have likely have prevented Chinese involvement in the war, and the entire sorry mess could have been prevented. Unfortunately Douglas MacArthur proved, once again, that brainpower was not his forte.
And this will be tame compared to what will happen if we let Iran get nukes.
Why? Certainly a nuclear-armed NK or Iran would be a very uncomfortable neighbour, but how does that affect the west? They haven't got the missile technology to reach us. True, Iran in particular is in a very dangerous position vis a vis the Persia Gulf oilfields, but its mere possesion of nuclear weapons would only be an indirect problem, not a serious direct threat.
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Post by sunnyside »

There are a couple problems.

First of all submarines.

Iran makes them. Currently they aren't very impressive (though they claim they are).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghadir_class

But without nuclear reactors what they can do is fairly limited. With a nuclear power plant they are in a different league.

Of course North Korea has something of submarines too. But theirs are old and crappy and more importantly they don't have the big piles of oil money Iran does with which to develop one.

Why are submarines a big deal? Well if a country fires a Ballistic missile from it's own boarder they can pretty well count on being turned into glass.

But what happens when a nuke gets fired from somewhere in the ocean? If you don't catch the sub that fired it you have not evidince where it came from. Lets say everyone denies fireing it. What do you do?

This gets extra fun if the technology spreads to more countries.


-------------

On the Chinese thing. Iran is trying to make it absolutly clear that their nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes. I believe Israel also c

I could waste my time with piles of examples. But the bottom line is that countries lie. It is quite possible that the Chinese simply would not have believed us.

And we should not believe the Iranians.
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Post by Aaron »

Guys, NK does not have a functioning nuclear device. Let alone one that can be deployed on a thirty year old glorified Holland Boat. And if they could you can trace the weapons origin from the fallout.
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Post by Graham Kennedy »

Building a credible SSBN fleet is probably the single most major military undertaking in history. In effort terms it's up there with the Apollo program.

It's not just building a submarine. It's not just building a nuclear powered submarine; those are tough enough. But you also need missiles, missiles which can be fired from under the water at that. And which has a range of at least a thousand miles or more. And reasonable accuracy. And which is big enough to carry a nuclear warhead.

Speaking of which, you need a reasonably small nuclear warhead.

And you need an inertial positioning system that can keep track of where you are, day after day, for a loooong time.

And if you are Iran, when you've done all that... you have to send them out to sea while the most sophisticated submarine fleet in the world sits and waits for you to come out, and then follows you around the world, just ready to stick a torpedo up your ass as soon as you blink.

Not that I am suggesting that Iran wouldn't like them, or that it wouldn't be a thing to give us pause if they had them. But it would be a truly monumental effort for them, and it wouldn't be the end of the world for us.
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Post by Sionnach Glic »

Oh, nice to know. I kinda figured he was exagerating the threat of them, but I wasn't aware he had none.
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Post by sunnyside »

First I don't think North Korea is really in any position to roll out a nuclear submarine of any type. I'm not so worried about them.

I do think Iran could though. Note that they don't have to make a credible SSBN fleet. They just need one. They also don't need to make a sophisticated ICMB. A sub launched cruise missile would be sufficient. That isn't that hard. But Iran does have longer range ballistic missiles anyway.

For missile guidance they could probably just order a GPS system at wal mart and install that.

@Kendall can you really trace country of origin accuratley from fallout? Links?

Graham also brings up what could be a good point. While finding a sub out in the middle of the ocean would be a needle in the haystack proposition. It could be possible to pick one up as it tries to get out of the Persian gulf or when it leaves port and just try to make sure you never, ever, lose the thing.

Still though. I think the only country that would actually do that is the US. Maybe the UK depending on who your PM is. And I'm not sure if I'd trust a Democratic president to keep our submarine fleet doing that. Especially if they start getting pissy about American ships/subs in national waters.

Is there any international water in the Persion gulf?



Also subs are just one scenario. The other fun one is. "ooops some "terrorists" have attacked one of our facilities and stolen a nuke! I assure the international community we are doing everything in our power to catch them"

And there is also the option to use nukes as cover to allow them to go on an overt or covert war against Israel or Iraq or whoever. Threatening nukes if we interfere. Since it would definitly be them doing the nuking it would seem like a bad idea. But do you really see Obama pushing the big red button if Iran nukes a carrier battlegroup?
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Post by Aaron »

sunnyside wrote:
@Kendall can you really trace country of origin accuratley from fallout? Links?
Yes, Uranium and by extension plutonium is unique to the region it's mined from. The IAEA keeps records and samples of these as do many other countries with nukes.
And there is also the option to use nukes as cover to allow them to go on an overt or covert war against Israel or Iraq or whoever. Threatening nukes if we interfere. Since it would definitly be them doing the nuking it would seem like a bad idea. But do you really see Obama pushing the big red button if Iran nukes a carrier battlegroup?
How exactly would they do that, nuclear torpedoes? That's a challenge far in excess of what Iran can accomplish, they can barely build a reactor. Even then their subs are pretty easy to detect and even if they pulled it off it would mean the utter destruction of Iran by the US nuclear arsenal.
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Post by sunnyside »

Cpl Kendall wrote: Yes, Uranium and by extension plutonium is unique to the region it's mined from. The IAEA keeps records and samples of these as do many other countries with nukes.
Again any links? Now I could believe that a bit of uranium would have impurities due to where it came from, and those could be traced. But first it's processed rather heavily in making a nuke. Ok maybe some impurities still get through. You might make plutonium in a reactor. Maybe some defects still get through. But then you detonate the plutonium and then detect trace amounts of defects in the fallout? I don't see how that would work.


How exactly would they do that, nuclear torpedoes? That's a challenge far in excess of what Iran can accomplish, they can barely build a reactor. Even then their subs are pretty easy to detect and even if they pulled it off it would mean the utter destruction of Iran by the US nuclear arsenal.
We currently have a habit of parking carrier battlegroups within a few hundred kilometers of Iran. So again a cruise missile or short range ballistic missile would be more than sufficient. They could probably justify it at least amongst themselves because we have some disagreements over what their national waters are so we might be in what they consider their soverign territory. Or close enough they could lie about it.

In such a situation I have some questions as to what exactly a US president or UK prime minister would do. It's easy to say we'd destroy them. Can you actually imagine James Brown standing up for a press conference and saying that last night he ordered the eradication of a few million people?

I think Iran might be able to get away with it. Or, just as bad, they might think they could get away with it.

Also if they were just threatening it I'm not sure if we'd back down or not.
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Post by Captain Seafort »

sunnyside wrote:We currently have a habit of parking carrier battlegroups within a few hundred kilometers of Iran. So again a cruise missile or short range ballistic missile would be more than sufficient.
I'm not sure how effective either of those would be - the Aegis system can deal with both of them
Can you actually imagine James Brown standing up for a press conference and saying that last night he ordered the eradication of a few million people?


Who's he? :?
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Post by Aaron »

sunnyside wrote: Again any links? Now I could believe that a bit of uranium would have impurities due to where it came from, and those could be traced. But first it's processed rather heavily in making a nuke. Ok maybe some impurities still get through. You might make plutonium in a reactor. Maybe some defects still get through. But then you detonate the plutonium and then detect trace amounts of defects in the fallout? I don't see how that would work.
I have to email a friend on that, get back to you.

We currently have a habit of parking carrier battlegroups within a few hundred kilometers of Iran. So again a cruise missile or short range ballistic missile would be more than sufficient. They could probably justify it at least amongst themselves because we have some disagreements over what their national waters are so we might be in what they consider their soverign territory. Or close enough they could lie about it.
You can't just ignore the issue of warhead size. And the IAEA has already reported that Iran's program is peaceful, even if they are scamming us they can't pay for the reactor the Russians are building for them. Work is at a crawl, if not a stand still due to lack of funds. At this rate, we'll run out of oil before they finish.
In such a situation I have some questions as to what exactly a US president or UK prime minister would do. It's easy to say we'd destroy them. Can you actually imagine James Brown standing up for a press conference and saying that last night he ordered the eradication of a few million people?
The stated policy for such things is overwhelming retaliation, if they don't go through with it than they may as well destroy the arsenal because it's just become less than worthless.
I think Iran might be able to get away with it. Or, just as bad, they might think they could get away with it.

Also if they were just threatening it I'm not sure if we'd back down or not.
The people who hold the power in Iran (don't fool yourself and think it's the President) are not stupid, they know exactly what will happen if they go to far. They desire to stay in power.
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Post by Aaron »

Captain Seafort wrote:
I'm not sure how effective either of those would be - the Aegis system can deal with both of them
It won't be effective at all, the Aegis system can handle over a hundred incoming targets at once. One cruise or ballistic missile is not a challenge.
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