Thanks for looking out for us Russia!

[Sonic Glitch]

In a plot straight out of Armageddon the chief of the Russian Space Agency announced the consideration of a mission to try and redirect the asteroid Apophis -- an asteroid that is now even less likely to hit us then it was originally. Story and http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_russia_asteroid_encounter

MOSCOW - Russia's space agency chief said Wednesday a spacecraft may be dispatched to knock a large asteroid off course and reduce the chances of earth impact, even though U.S. scientists say such a scenario is unlikely.

Anatoly Perminov told Golos Rossii radio the space agency would hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis. He said his agency might eventually invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space agency and others to join the project.

When the 270-meter (885-foot) asteroid was first discovered in 2004, astronomers estimated its chances of smashing into Earth in its first flyby, in 2029, at 1-in-37.

Further studies have ruled out the possibility of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to come no closer than 18,300 miles (29,450 kilometers) from Earth's surface, but they indicated a small possibility of a hit on subsequent encounters.

NASA had put the chances that Apophis could hit Earth in 2036 as 1-in-45,000. In October, after researchers recalculated the asteroid's path, the agency changed its estimate to 1-in-250,000.

NASA said another close encounter in 2068 will involve a 1-in-330,000 chance of impact.

"It wasn't anything to worry about before. Now it's even less so," said Steve Chesley, an astronomer with the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Without mentioning NASA's conclusions, Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis is getting closer and may hit the planet. "I don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032," Perminov said.

"People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow us to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people," Perminov said.

Scientists have long theorized about asteroid deflection strategies. Some have proposed sending a probe to circle around a dangerous asteroid to gradually change its trajectory. Others suggested sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid and alter its momentum, or hitting it with nuclear weapons.

Perminov wouldn't disclose any details of the project, saying they still need to be worked out. But he said the mission wouldn't require any nuclear explosions.

Hollywood action films "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon," have featured space missions scrambling to avoid catastrophic collisions. In both movies, space crews use nuclear bombs in an attempt to prevent collisions.

"Calculations show that it's possible to create a special purpose spacecraft within the time we have, which would help avoid the collision," Perminov said. "The threat of collision can be averted."

Boris Shustov, the director of the Institute of Astronomy under the Russian Academy of Sciences, hailed Perminov's statement as a signal that officials had come to recognize the danger posed by asteroids.

"Apophis is just a symbolic example, there are many other dangerous objects we know little about," he said, according to RIA Novosti news agency.

[Sionnach Glic]

Someone call Bruce Willis!

[Aaron]

Think of the awesome PR if they did.

[Sionnach Glic]

Damn right. They could truthfully call themselves saviours of the world.

Take that America.

[Captain Seafort]

I wonder if they'll call their system "Peter the Great".

Cookie for the reference.

[Deepcrush]

Hey, at least they are finally trying to do something meaningful. Rather then just raping each other and killing everyone around. Its a good step in the right direction.

[Mikey]

I wonder if they'll call their system "Peter the Great".

Cookie for the reference.

Umm... he was a tsar? Anyway, perhaps next they could divert funds to creating a smallpox vaccine, or a system to track Santa Claus.

[BigJKU316]

Anyone else think that with like 1 in 300,000 or whatever the chances were it hits us we might as well just leave the thing alone rather than risk screwing up our calculations or execution and possibly killing everyone on the planet?

[IanKennedy]

What ever the chance of the asteroid hitting us the chance of it being hit and being deflected to hit us is many many many many times less likely.

[Tyyr]

Not necessarily. If the asteroid is crossing the Earth's orbit ahead of us then a poorly aimed attempt could slow it enough to turn a miss into a hit. Now if it's trailing then yeah, it'd be almost impossible to cause a hit.

There's nothing wrong with working up schemes to deflect asteroids, even going ahead and building one or two. I'd commend the Russians on having a little forward thinking if it weren't, you know, the Russians, and the thing had a 50/50 shot of just exploding on the pad.

[BigJKU316]

Not necessarily. If the asteroid is crossing the Earth's orbit ahead of us then a poorly aimed attempt could slow it enough to turn a miss into a hit. Now if it's trailing then yeah, it'd be almost impossible to cause a hit.

There's nothing wrong with working up schemes to deflect asteroids, even going ahead and building one or two. I'd commend the Russians on having a little forward thinking if it weren't, you know, the Russians, and the thing had a 50/50 shot of just exploding on the pad.

Exactly. I don't know how it is supposed to miss. But if we are pretty much sure it is going to miss lets just leave well enough alone.

[IanKennedy]

Not necessarily. If the asteroid is crossing the Earth's orbit ahead of us then a poorly aimed attempt could slow it enough to turn a miss into a hit. Now if it's trailing then yeah, it'd be almost impossible to cause a hit.

There's nothing wrong with working up schemes to deflect asteroids, even going ahead and building one or two. I'd commend the Russians on having a little forward thinking if it weren't, you know, the Russians, and the thing had a 50/50 shot of just exploding on the pad.

BS, the chances of you hitting it just right and causing it to hit are infinitesimal. Space is vast, earth is tiny in comparison. It's like throwing a rock at a fast flying brick and expecting it to take out the eye of a passing bird.

[Tyyr]

I said could, not would Ian. The chances of doing it for a asteroid crossing the Earth's orbital path ahead are greater than for a trailing one given where the shot is coming from. Additionally as small as Earth is the asteroid is already a grazing shot, cosmically speaking. It also doesn't have to be a full on bullseye, get it close enough and Earth's gravity can help refine the shot.

Like I said though, could not would. The odds are better for a certain configuration of the bodies but 1:500,000 is better than 1:1,000,000 even if the odds still suck.

[Sonic Glitch]

Not necessarily. If the asteroid is crossing the Earth's orbit ahead of us then a poorly aimed attempt could slow it enough to turn a miss into a hit. Now if it's trailing then yeah, it'd be almost impossible to cause a hit.

There's nothing wrong with working up schemes to deflect asteroids, even going ahead and building one or two. I'd commend the Russians on having a little forward thinking if it weren't, you know, the Russians, and the thing had a 50/50 shot of just exploding on the pad.

BS, the chances of you hitting it just right and causing it to hit are infinitesimal. Space is vast, earth is tiny in comparison. It's like throwing a rock at a fast flying brick and expecting it to take out the eye of a passing bird.

All of a sudden, I'm reminded of Mr. Scotts amazing analogy from Star Trek is it accurate enough to say the notion of hitting and deflecting an asteroid is "like trying to hit a bullet, with a smaller bullet, while wearing a blindfold riding a horse"?

[Tyyr]

Not really. I mean it makes for a nice homey little saying but no. The only real wildcard in the process is the asteroid's composition and density which would be relatively minor issues given the way this would likely go. Simply put this kind of impact (if they even us an impactor, gravity tugs, solar sails, ion engines, etc are much more controlled ways of doing it) isn't going to be large enough for the asteroid's physical make up, potential faults, weak points, etc. to really matter.