The climate change scandal

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sunnyside
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The climate change scandal

Post by sunnyside »

I guess this happened a while ago, but I've only recently heard about it when CNN had someone on trying to downplay the scandal.

So I poked around to find out what the scandal actually was. I'm actually rather displeased that this didn't make more waves when it hit, as this is a major case of scientific dishonesty with an important issue. I'll be downright pissed if those involved aren't punished heavily. I don't care if all you're studying is frog farts, this sort of academic dishonesty is inexcusable and cannot brushed off without making the important peer review process a sham.
By now you might have heard something about the scandal rocking the climate-change industry, though you can be forgiven if you haven't, since it hasn't gotten nearly the coverage it should. Computer hackers broke into the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in England and downloaded thousands of e-mails and other documents. The CRU is one of the world's leading global- warming data hubs, providing much of the number-crunching to global policymakers on climate change. And boy, can they crunch numbers.

In a long string of embarrassing e-mail exchanges, CRU scientists discuss with friendly outside colleagues, including Penn State University's Michael Mann, how to manipulate the data they want to show the world, and how to hide the often flawed data they don't. In one exchange, they discuss the "trick" of how to "hide the decline" in global temperatures since the 1960s. Again and again, the researchers don't object just to inconvenient truths but also inconvenient truth-tellers. They contemplate and orchestrate efforts to purge scientists and journals who won't sing from the same global-warming hymnal.

In one instance, Phil Jones, the CRU director, says a scientific journal must "rid (itself) of this troublesome editor," who happened to publish a problematic paper. In another, Jones says we "will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"

These documents reveal the trick behind how they hide the dissent. Climate change activists often dismiss critics by noting that the skeptics haven't offered their arguments in peer-reviewed literature. Hence why they work so hard to keep dissenters out of the literature! Indeed, whatever the final verdict on the CRU's shenanigans, two things are already firmly established by even a sympathetic reading of these documents.

First, the climate change industry is shot through with groupthink (or what climate scientist Judith Curry calls "climate tribalism"). Activists would have us believe that the overwhelming majority of real scientists agree with them while the few dissenters are all either crazed or greedy "deniers" akin to flat-earthers and creationists. These e-mails show that what's really at work is a very large clique of scientists attempting to excommunicate perceived heretics for reasons that have more to do with psychology and sociology than physics or climatology.

Second, the climate industry really is an industry. Climate scientists make their money and careers from government, academia, the United Nations and foundations. The grantors want the grantees to confirm the global warming consensus. The tenure and peer-review processes likewise hinge on conformity. That doesn't necessarily mean climate change is untrue, but it does mean sloppiness and bias are unavoidable.

How big a scandal this is for the scientific community is being hotly debated on the Internet. But in big newspapers and TV news, the story has gotten less attention. And that's a scandal, too. The New York Times' leading climate reporter, Andrew Revkin (whose name appears in some of the e-mails), won't publish the contents of the e-mail on the grounds it would violate the scientists' privacy. Can anyone imagine the Times being so prissy if such damning e-mails were from ExxonMobil, never mind Dick Cheney?

Indeed, the closer you look at the scandal, the more you realize it's all one big outrage. The same journalistic tribalism that allowed Dan Rather to destroy his career over "Memogate" keeps reinforcing itself. Rather picked sources who said what he wanted to hear, then he reported what they said as if it were indisputable. The same thing is happening on climate change. Ideological bias is a major factor in the news media's work as a transmission belt for the climate industry. But part of the problem is also that the journalists do a bad job when the majority of so-called respected experts agree on anything complicated. For instance, it was pretty impossible for reporters to independently investigate whether Saddam Hussein had WMDs, and since the most established authorities agreed he had to have them, the news media reported the consensus, which turned out to be wrong.

Likewise, most journalists aren't qualified to work through the climate data. So they opt for the consensus. But there are important differences, too. While there's often reason for governments to hide classified intelligence, there's no reason for climate data to be classified. If the science is a slam dunk, why are CRU researchers keen on hiding their research? After the WMD fiasco, journalists agonized over their mistakes. Why no soul-searching over the CRU fiasco? Climate change hasn't been debunked by these documents. But the integrity of the consensus has been.

Also, keep in mind that the stakes are higher. In Copenhagen this month, the U.S. government will try to join the global bandwagon to spend trillions in fighting climate change. That money will not only enrich corporations, weaken U.S. sovereignty and hinder global growth, it will come out of funds that could be spent on fighting disease and poverty. Surely that's worth some journalistic skepticism?
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/edi ... 52169.html
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Re: The climate change scandal

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Yeah I heard about this awhile back, on CNN actually. Cambel Brown had a scientist on to discuss what it meant and everything. Global Warming is still a fact scientifically speaking. While these emails do damage it, they don't disprove it. Science can be changed and if evidence supports something else then so be it but it doesn't support something else- least not yet.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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Monroe wrote:Yeah I heard about this awhile back, on CNN actually. Cambel Brown had a scientist on to discuss what it meant and everything. Global Warming is still a fact scientifically speaking. While these emails do damage it, they don't disprove it. Science can be changed and if evidence supports something else then so be it but it doesn't support something else- least not yet.
It's true that this doesn't disprove global warming.

However, at least in this field it may disprove the idea of a "consensus of experts", or "if evidence supports something else then so be it."

It sounds like they saw about the ejection of editors that published papers that didn't agree with their work and cooked their data to make the evidence say what they wanted. That isn't science, it's committing fraud to fleece more taxpayer money in the form of grants, but it's being used as if it were science.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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Monroe wrote:Yeah I heard about this awhile back, on CNN actually. Cambel Brown had a scientist on to discuss what it meant and everything. Global Warming is still a fact scientifically speaking. While these emails do damage it, they don't disprove it. Science can be changed and if evidence supports something else then so be it but it doesn't support something else- least not yet.
I'm sorry but the words scientific and fact don't go together in that way. Scientific facts are observations that are reproducible. For example "if you drop a ball it will fall towards the ground" is a fact. It's observable and repeatable. It's the theory of gravity that explains why this may be. Equally, the statement "there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now than there ever has been" is a fact. However, global warming is merely a theory that attempts to predict what will happen because of this.

Being a theory means that if new evidence comes along and contradicts the theory it's out of the window and we need a new theory. Now I'm not saying that this is what's happened here. However, if people have been conspiring to hide evidence we're left wondering what the true story is. Without knowing what they have and haven't been keeping to themselves then we cannot even start to judge if what they're telling us is true or not.

Not only is this scientifically unforgivable it's also politically unforgivable. If it turns out that they've not been telling the truth even to a small degree it could destroy the political will to do anything about it. After all how can we now trust anything they've ever said.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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I hope that at a bare minimum this shatters the idiotic notion that scientists are totally without bias and deal only in facts. That they'd never fudge them and if something is disproven they'll immediately re-evaluate things and change their minds.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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IanKennedy wrote:
Not only is this scientifically unforgivable it's also politically unforgivable. If it turns out that they've not been telling the truth even to a small degree it could destroy the political will to do anything about it. After all how can we now trust anything they've ever said.
Actually that's a good point. I think both sides of the debate should demand access to their raw data and methods and send it off to some other groups, ideally ones that have the required technical skills but that haven't been involved at all in this field.

The deniers in an attempt to substantiate their denial, and the global warming community in order to salvage some credibility and get going back on track.


And the rest of us too, so we actually know what the deal is and can vote appropriately.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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Tyyr wrote:I hope that at a bare minimum this shatters the idiotic notion that scientists are totally without bias and deal only in facts. That they'd never fudge them and if something is disproven they'll immediately re-evaluate things and change their minds.
Not really, it merely demonstrate that these are not scientists. They're religious nut jobs, their religion just happens to be Global Warming.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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Unfortunatly the raw data has been "lost".
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Re: The climate change scandal

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Must have gotten their methodology from the guy who got The Lancet in trouble for reporting his egregiously manipulated data which "proved" the link between vaccinations and autism.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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IanKennedy wrote: Not really, it merely demonstrate that these are not scientists. They're religious nut jobs, their religion just happens to be Global Warming.
No, they're scientists, just corrupt ones. While I think there are some people for whom Global Warming is something they simply believe without challenge and a degree of faith on par with a religious fanatic, these are the guys behind the curtain.

I think the situation is just as simple as: If they find global warming, they get accolades, power, and cold cash in the form of grants, if they find it isn't happening they get far less. So what position do they support?

That said it seems that while their results have been called into question on numerous occasions, they actually haven't done such a great job of keeping other papers out, and there are numbers of other sources getting somewhat similar results from similar data.

Where I think global warming research needs more emphasis is to actually take a look at the other possibilities. I.e. that growth rings on trees (used to gauge historic temperatures) could be directly affected by the rising carbon levels (plants grow faster with longer sunny seasons, but also grow faster in the presence of more CO2). And also more investigation of the possibility of the "hocky stick" being caused by sun spots.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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Plus volcanic activity. I once heard that volcanic activity could explain a lot of the CO2. There's apparently been a lot of activity lately.
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Re: The climate change scandal

Post by Mikey »

Yes, so much so that we're currently in one of the least volcanically active times in the history of ever. :roll:
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Re: The climate change scandal

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I figure if Beck, Limbaugh and Coulter were to suddenly expire, CO2 emissions would drop sharply.
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Re: The climate change scandal

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Nah, but the temperature would still drop - due, of course, to the drastic reduction in hot air.
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Re: The climate change scandal

Post by Captain Picard's Hair »

This certainly throws a monkey wrench into the works.

A warming trend in recent decades is fact, but the explanation is not -- and certainly not any predictions made by that theory. Now that theory certainly stands to have it's merits re-evaluated, but as noted above the political damage is done already.

Science is meant to be objective (so is almost everything :roll: ) but it's run by humans who don't by nature operate in a purely objective fashion </understatement of the year>. Again, the damage to the image of "science" as an institution is done.

As far as climate change action (worth little more than the paper these plans are written on as long as China and India are around anyway...) the "economic" arguments could be set to take on a new tone if the "rock solid" scientific backing evaporates. Of course sensible action to foster efficiency and reduce pollution in general (yes, it does more than warm the earth!) is still a very good idea.
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