Who will start World War III?

[Monroe]

I voted North Korea.

I did so, because while most other nations may be hostile, they atleast have reason...the leader of N. Korea however is at a stalemate with the US and UN. The US/UN won't help him unless he gets rid of his nucs, he's thretening to shoot off his nukes unless the US/UN secures his regieme, and it seems like neither side is willing to compromise.

I see it playing out that after we're done in the middle east, maybe a few presidents down the line when we get another incompetant one, the US decides that we don't need to ask him to get rid of the nukes, we'll undermine his regieme. The Korean leader will then launch nukes, initiating WWIII.

You know their nukes don't work, right?

I sure hope not >.<

[Aaron]

I sure hope not >.<

Well there isn't much to go except for that fizzle a while back. They haven't had a successful test that I know of and I doubt they have the know how to do the computer moddling the Americans do.

[JudgeKing]

I say Zimbabwae will start WW3 because Mugabe is insane.

[Monroe]

I say Zimbabwae will start WW3 because Mugabe is insane.

Is he anything but a local threat though?

[Sionnach Glic]

Mugabe can't do anything but invade some neighbouring African countries. He's no threat to the First World, an only a war involving the First World will ever be defined as WW3 in history.

My history teacher in college always said there were three nations that never bully well throughout history. The Dutch, the English, and the Americans. Look at the solidarity that formed after 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. Its like invading Russia. Russians fought like crap in the Winter War but the Germans found out that the Russians fighting on Russia was a whole different matter. Some countries just don't do too well to other countries trying to bash them into submission. Maybe its the culture. Maybe its a feeling of homeland or the motherland. But some countries just don't bend.

I think the US would be against the war if it happened over sees constantly but if the war was close at home I don't think any invader would have an easy time. Same with Russia, as I contend they aren't easy to bully either, though they have been in the past.

Quite right. It all depends on the context. Who fires the first shot? What type of shot do they fire? Do they declare war beforehand or make a Pearl Harbour style sneak attack?
If the US was the aggressor in the war, the public would quickly turn against it when the casualty rates start shooting up. If they're defending, there'll be more support. It's probably the same, to a lesser extent, in Russia. No idea on China.

That said, public opinion isn't the only factor. The governments of the "big three" have too much of an interest in maintaining peace to start a war.
China's economy is praticaly based on exporting stuff to the other two major powers, so attacking would fuck up their own economy to massive extents.
Russia isn't powerful enough to win a war against either of the others, and they know it.
The US can't attack China due to the massive amount of materials it imports from there, and can't attack Russia due to the fact Europe gets all their oil from there (the US attacks and the Russians cut off the oil, all of Europe will turn against the US).

There's also, quite simply, nothing to justify the costs of such a war. There's litteraly no reason for them to go to war with each other.

Aye Russia has its own oil concerns to look out for. China though may support the ME.

Unlikely. They make too much money from selling goods to the various First World powers. Thus they need to keep them happy. They may verbaly support it, but they won't be helping them out in any way.

You misunderstood the concept.

The ME alliance doesnt need to be powerful eough to take on the world. Just to take out Turkey and pose a moderate threat to Eastern Europe, both well with in there power.

I seriously doubt Turkey is going to fall to a mismatched alliance of sworn enemies with decades old military equipment. And Eastern Europe sure as hell isn't going to be threatened at all by them.

Firstly, they have no choice, If Turkey dams the rivers which they are likely to do from what I hear it is going to royally screw over a lot of people, not that Turkey cares.

It'll screw over the populace, not the leaders. Ergo, they won't care as it doesn't impact their lives. They can afford to import water for themselves. They're not going to start a futile war that they know they'd lose. They'll bitch and rattle their sabres for all eternity over such an action, but they're not going to throw away everything they've worked so hard to achieve.

The threat of economic bitch slap is laughable.

The ME arabs will unit against a common enemy, when they do no one can f**k with them because they hold the oil. We can bitch and moan all we like and make some token efforts but the fact is they can f**k us over by stopping oila lot worse than we can them.

There are other sources of oil than the ME, you know. Russia has a fuckload of oil, the EU gets the majority of its oil from there, the US has enough stockpiles to last for a few years before they need to start looking elsewhere and Canada has quite a bit of oil, from what I've heard. There's also the fact that we have access to nuclear reactors to supply power.
The Arab Alliance cutting off oil would definitely cause chaos, but it wouldn't be a killing blow. We'd recover.

The AA, on the other hand, wouldn't. They quite litteraly make everything from selling oil. If they suddenly stop, they're fucked. No money coming into the country = total economic collapse. Again, they're not stupid enough to make such a move.

If there water gets cut off they will go to war, they have no choice.

If it gets cut off, they'll bitch about it and start rattling their sabres and try to get the UN to stop Turkey from doing it. They aren't going to start a futile war they know they'll lose horrificaly.

A ME alliance of the Arab nations would put up a damn good fight against Turkey. Them Vs Turkey by themselves, my money is on the Alliance, depending on how fast Europe and US can pour military aid in Turkey it could swing the other way.

My money's on Turkey.
First, how are forces going to get from one end of the ME all the way to Turkey? The various leaders aren't going to just let masses of enemy tanks roll through their cities, and they sure as hell won't want to send all their forces to the other side of the ME when their sworn enemies are sitting right next to them.
Secondly, how the hell are they going to win when Turkey would have air superiority? Any large formation of tanks or troops would be blasted before they get too far past Turkey's border.
Thirdly, the ME armies are, quite bluntly, shit. While Turkey is hardly great, their army is large enough and well equipped enough to hold off an invasion by such countries.

While it's hardly going to be a curbstomp, I think Turkey's superior tech could at least hold the AA off long enough to bring both parties to the negotiation table.

The big factor in the war will be how fast it happens and how fast everyone reacts. NATO is not fast to react and only time will tell in what position America will be to help.

It's hardly going to be some sort of unforseen blitzkrieg. You think the AA can move large quantities of troops from one end of the ME to Turkey's border without practicaly every country on the planet noticing? Hell no. The build up will be noticed months before the attack actualy takes place, and the US, EU and NATO would all have ample time to react.

Russia and China will not help Turkey. This whole senario works in both their favors.

Exactly how does it work in their favour? Seeing the militaries of the ME crippled would work perfectly for them, as would the resulting collapse of the ME economies. Why? Because then they'd be pretty damn desperate to get more money by selling more oil.
Seeing Turkey invaded, the AA gain a foothold near Europe and Russia and a massive alliance of people that hate them continuing to exist would not benefit them in any way.

And I never said Russia will help the ME allaince (not directly anyway, they may supply weapons ect) they will how ever try to throw around their poiltical muscle a bit and expand their zone of influence.

Of course they'll try to use the situation to their own advantage. And crippling the ME governments would be exactly what works in their favour. Having Turkey fall and giving the AA a sense of power would not help them. Jumping on the bandwagon to help slap down the AA would work perfectly in their favour, as it boosts relations with the various countries and puts Turkey somewhat in their debt, particularly if they sell them weapons.

I voted North Korea.

I did so, because while most other nations may be hostile, they atleast have reason...the leader of N. Korea however is at a stalemate with the US and UN. The US/UN won't help him unless he gets rid of his nucs, he's thretening to shoot off his nukes unless the US/UN secures his regieme, and it seems like neither side is willing to compromise.

I see it playing out that after we're done in the middle east, maybe a few presidents down the line when we get another incompetant one, the US decides that we don't need to ask him to get rid of the nukes, we'll undermine his regieme. The Korean leader will then launch nukes, initiating WWIII.

Never gonna happen. NK has no way of launching their nukes to hit anywhere further than SK, if they even have nukes. They know they'd be ruthlessly crushed in a war, and the leaders over there aren't going to throw away everything they've worked so hard to maintain in a suicidal action that would only end with their own destruction.
They may be insane, but they're not that far gone just yet.

Personaly, I see Israel as the most likely nation to start tossing nukes around. If Iran starts building them, I can easily see Israel lobbing a couple of nuclear warheads in their direction. They know the rest of the world isn't going to do anything but bitch at them. If you define a nuclear conflict as WW3, then that's it.

[Monroe]

Well the ME does have a history of uniting. It would take someone of Saladin or that one Eithopian guy who opposed the Italians I forgot the name of. But it could in theory happen if someone with the right personality came. But I agree its not too likely. Still though I think the ME combined forces would be greater than Turkey. Iran > Turkey in military might AFAIK.

[Teaos]

I seriously doubt Turkey is going to fall to a mismatched alliance of sworn enemies with decades old military equipment. And Eastern Europe sure as hell isn't going to be threatened at all by them.

You are either seriously over estimating Turkey or seriously under estimating the alliance.

Turkey by its self could take any one of them on, combined it would fall with out a lot of military aid very quickly from NATO.

And thats if NATO sends aid at all.

Here is a list of size of military and the budgets there of. As you can see, yes Turkey is very impressive, no it most likely could not stand up to the combined forces of the ME.

Lets do the math shall we:

Possible ME alliance would consist of:

Iran: Obvously, probably the main force and the one that would really worry people.

Maybe Iraq, they are under the americans thumbs right now but not for long and the river daming would fuck them over more than anyone... they are also the gate way to Turkey. Even if it didnt send in a real army the amount of terrorist that would flood into Turkey from here would be insane.

Saudi Arabia, they hold no great love of Turkey and have strong ties with other Arab nations.

Jordan, Wont be bothered by the damming directly but would probably help out their fellow Arab nations. There has been a lot fo "Us vs Them" Attitude in the ME recently thanks to Israel.

Syria, Again would probably help out just for the fuck of it. Be nice for them to win a war for once.

Egypt: Probable support although lattly its hard to tell what the fuck they are doing.

The there are the other nations that helped out in the 6 day war that might help out right or offer token support: Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria.

Now we combine their standing military forces we get number something like (The lower number is with the countries likely to join the other is with the possibles, so the number would be somewhere in the middle proabably):

Troops: Anywhere from 1.7 million to 2.4 million
Tanks: 10k to 13k
Planes: 1,700-2,300
Budget: 35-40 billion

Now lets look at Turkey:

Troops: around 500k (one third the size of the lower estimate, one fifth of the higher)
Tanks: 4.2k (under half)
Planes: 424 (about a quarter, hard to get air superiority with that)
Budget: 22.5 billion (Again, about half)

So even if Turkey does have better stuff, and from what little I could find it is by no means a huge difference (like Israel compared to the rest) they are still going to be soundly out classed.

It'll screw over the populace, not the leaders. Ergo, they won't care as it doesn't impact their lives. They can afford to import water for themselves. They're not going to start a futile war that they know they'd lose. They'll bitch and rattle their sabres for all eternity over such an action, but they're not going to throw away everything they've worked so hard to achieve.

Dispite what the media tries to tell us all the time, the leader are not evil and they are not stupid. They will not let their population go thirsty, not because their neighbour is being a c**t and damming a river. They will attack.

There are other sources of oil than the ME, you know. Russia has a fuckload of oil, the EU gets the majority of its oil from there, the US has enough stockpiles to last for a few years before they need to start looking elsewhere and Canada has quite a bit of oil, from what I've heard. There's also the fact that we have access to nuclear reactors to supply power.
The Arab Alliance cutting off oil would definitely cause chaos, but it wouldn't be a killing blow. We'd recover.

Bwhahahahahha.

Russia give us oil? You mean the country that just shut off the old line to europe this winter? Yeah good luck with that mate.

The other sorces of oil would make sure that vital areas still get oil but the rest of the world would grind to a halt. Oil is not just used for transport ect, you know plastic is made from oil right? If they cut off oil for a long time we would be so totally screwed as to be unimaginable.

So yeah, we can keep ticking but I for one dont feel like payin $5 a litre for petrol after lining up for it for 3 hours. Think I'm joking? Look up what happened last time OPEC played hardball in the 60's-70's.

The AA, on the other hand, wouldn't. They quite litteraly make everything from selling oil. If they suddenly stop, they're f***ed. No money coming into the country = total economic collapse. Again, they're not stupid enough to make such a move.

Ummm... yeah they would.

Done it before they will do it again. They can survive a few months with out the revenue, they have billions in stock piles and they know the second they need money they can just start selling oil again.

If it gets cut off, they'll bitch about it and start rattling their sabres and try to get the UN to stop Turkey from doing it. They aren't going to start a futile war they know they'll lose horrificaly.

Last time someone fucked with their water the 6 day war happened. So yeah, they do a little more than sabre rattling.

Honestly I dont think your grasping the seriousness of Turkey damming those rivers.

My money's on Turkey.
First, how are forces going to get from one end of the ME all the way to Turkey? The various leaders aren't going to just let masses of enemy tanks roll through their cities, and they sure as hell won't want to send all their forces to the other side of the ME when their sworn enemies are sitting right next to them.

Other side of the middle east?

Iran and Suadi Arabia, the two biggest countries are with in pissing distance of Turkey, they just need to cut across Iraq which is in no position to stop them... no that they would since they are the country that would be screwed the most by the damming. The other countries would most likely offer air support which is easy to move and maybe troops which can be transported acorss friendly ground.

Attacking Turkey would in a geographical sence be easier than attacking Israel for many of them... and they have done that a few times.

Secondly, how the hell are they going to win when Turkey would have air superiority? Any large formation of tanks or troops would be blasted before they get too far past Turkey's border

Air superiorty? No. They may have a bit of technological lead against some of them but they are over whelmed in numbers.

Thirdly, the ME armies are, quite bluntly, s**t. While Turkey is hardly great, their army is large enough and well equipped enough to hold off an invasion by such countries.

I think I have proved that while not an easy fight the Alliance could very likely win. It wouldnt be easy but they would pull it off.

Thats when the real fun begins for the rest of the world...

It's hardly going to be some sort of unforseen blitzkrieg. You think the AA can move large quantities of troops from one end of the ME to Turkey's border without practicaly every country on the planet noticing? Hell no. The build up will be noticed months before the attack actualy takes place, and the US, EU and NATO would all have ample time to react.

The 6 day war happened pretty fucking quick. Everyone knew it was coming but no one knew exactly when.

Exactly how does it work in their favour? Seeing the militaries of the ME crippled would work perfectly for them, as would the resulting collapse of the ME economies. Why? Because then they'd be pretty damn desperate to get more money by selling more oil.
Seeing Turkey invaded, the AA gain a foothold near Europe and Russia and a massive alliance of people that hate them continuing to exist would not benefit them in any way.

For one the instability in the region would allow them to extend their influnce in the area through military and economic aid.

For Russia it would be great since they would once more be raking in the big dollars from oil.

It distracts the EU allowing Russia to keep trying to get power over its old territories.

And it shows nicely that America is no longer able to solve the worlds problems.

[Captain Seafort]

You are either seriously over estimating Turkey or seriously under estimating the alliance.

Turkey by its self could take any one of them on, combined it would fall with out a lot of military aid very quickly from NATO.

And thats if NATO sends aid at all.

Even against all of them, the Turkish armed forces are well-enough equipped to take on the lot until NATO reinforcements arrive (which they would, since Turkey's a NATO member), especially given how mountainous the entire country is - the defenders would have even more of an inbuilt advantage than usual. Given that it would take weeks or months to concentrate the AA forces on the Turkish border, there'd be more than enough time to get forces from Germany, and to move at least the 5th and 6th Fleets into position to provide direct support, or to hit the offenders from the Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea

[Teaos]

Its just not that simple, NATO drowns in red tape on the best of days. Add to that the fact that this is almost a justified war (Turkey would essentially be condemming millions to a dramatic decrease in the quality of life) and the fact that OPEC will royally fuck the world over the question of NATO support and reinforcements is a big unknown.

But I would like to point out that this pretty much proves my point.

WWIII = Majority of the middle east, NATO (includes USA), possibly Russia, depending on just how much it escilates you could very well see several other important countries getting involved.

[Captain Seafort]

Its just not that simple, NATO drowns in red tape on the best of days. Add to that the fact that this is almost a justified war (Turkey would essentially be condemming millions to a dramatic decrease in the quality of life) and the fact that OPEC will royally f**k the world over the question of NATO support and reinforcements is a big unknown.

On the contrary - the shitstorm that ignoring an article 5 request would produce is pretty easilly imagined. The Turks would certainly get a bollocking for being stupid, but they'd also get military support.

WWIII = Majority of the middle east, NATO (includes USA), possibly Russia, depending on just how much it escilates you could very well see several other important countries getting involved.

By that standard, the First Gulf War was WW3, given that most of the Middle East, NATO, and the Soviet Union got involved in some way shape or form.

[Lt. Staplic]

out of curiosity what does everyone think the factions would be in WWIII?

[Captain Seafort]

out of curiosity what does everyone think the factions would be in WWIII?

Based on the definition I put up earlier about it being the first war with full-scale use of nuclear weapons? India on one side, Pakistan on the other, and everyone else staying well out of their way.

[Lt. Staplic]

would that constitute as a World War?

[Captain Seafort]

Given that it would have global consequences, it's as good a definition as Teaos' local middle eastern war. If you consider the series of post-9/11 wars and counter-terrorism ops to be a war, then we're already in the middle of WWIII, and it wasn't started by a country, but by AQ.

[Sionnach Glic]

You are either seriously over estimating Turkey or seriously under estimating the alliance.

Turkey by its self could take any one of them on, combined it would fall with out a lot of military aid very quickly from NATO.

And thats if NATO sends aid at all.

Of course NATO would send aid. Firstly, the other NATO powers are obligated to declare war on any nations that declare war on Turkey. Secondly, they aren't going to just sit back and watch an allied nation get taken over by their current biggest enemies. NATO may be drowning in red tape, but they were quick enough to jump into action when the US was attacked on 9/11. When their treaty states quite clearly what they must do, it's going to go quickly enough.

Here is a list of size of military and the budgets there of. As you can see, yes Turkey is very impressive, no it most likely could not stand up to the combined forces of the ME.

And the nations that attacked Israel had a greater combined military budget and size than Israel itself did. Numbers and money are important, but only to an extent.

Iran: Obvously, probably the main force and the one that would really worry people.

Why would they get involved? The Tigris and Euphrates don't pass through Iran, and they have other sources of water elsewhere. And they hate and are hated by all the other ME countries, so wouldn't give a shit what happened to them. They'd be likely to just sit back and watch the fireworks while prepping their troops to annex some now undefended territory.

Maybe Iraq, they are under the americans thumbs right now but not for long and the river daming would f**k them over more than anyone... they are also the gate way to Turkey. Even if it didnt send in a real army the amount of terrorist that would flood into Turkey from here would be insane.

Iraq will be a pro-US nation for the near future. As such, they're not going to attack the US' allies. If this takes place after the pro-US government has fallen, then they're not going to be stupid enough to declare war on one of the US' major allies in the region.

Saudi Arabia, they hold no great love of Turkey and have strong ties with other Arab nations.

Again, those rivers don't appear to pass through them. Sending troops and equipment to fight on the other side of the ME would seriously cripple their defences, even in the event that they're victorious. Also, they'd piss of the US, which is one of their biggest suporters. There's no reason for them to fight Turkey.

Egypt: Probable support although lattly its hard to tell what the f**k they are doing.

Not. A. Chance. Not only do those rivers have nothing to do with them, but they've no reason at all to get involved.

Jordan, Wont be bothered by the damming directly but would probably help out their fellow Arab nations. There has been a lot fo "Us vs Them" Attitude in the ME recently thanks to Israel.

Again, unlikely. They're not going to go to a war that will cripple them even if they win just because their neighbours are.

Syria, Again would probably help out just for the f**k of it. Be nice for them to win a war for once.

Syria's the only country you've listed that is even remotely likely to attack. Firstly, the Tigris and Euphrates pass right through it, and supply the majority of their water. If that's dammed, I can see them taking military action if they start getting desperate. The fact that they hate Turkey and the US and are just about insane enough to think they might be able to win could also push them into it.

The there are the other nations that helped out in the 6 day war that might help out right or offer token support: Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria.

They've no military assets that could really get to Turkey. They'd be limited to rattling their sabres from the other side of the Mediterrainian. The fact that the blocking of the Tigris and Euphrates would not affect them in the slightest would mean they're likely to just sit back and not give a shit. They've no reason to declare war.

Looking at this, I'm not sure you even know which countries lie along the Tigris and Euphrates. After Turkey, they only pass through Syria and Iraq, coming nowhere near any other countries. The other ME countries have other sources of water they can use. The Tigris of Euphrates being dammed completely wouldn't bother them enough that they'd declare war.

Now we combine their standing military forces we get number something like (The lower number is with the countries likely to join the other is with the possibles, so the number would be somewhere in the middle proabably):
*snip numbers*

As I've already shown, only Syria is likely to actualy go so far as to take military action, with maybe Iraq going along for the ride. Turkey could swat them down easily enough.

Dispite what the media tries to tell us all the time, the leader are not evil and they are not stupid. They will not let their population go thirsty, not because their neighbour is being a c**t and damming a river. They will attack.

No, they won't. See above. They're not going to go to war over something that doesn't concern them.

Bwhahahahahha.

Russia give us oil? You mean the country that just shut off the old line to europe this winter? Yeah good luck with that mate.

The oil was cut off because the Ukraine was being a prick and stealing oil from it. Given that the oil from Russia has, until recently, been rather steady in flowing, I see no reason they'd stop.

Of course, this is irrelevant. OPEC isn't going to cut off oil because Iraq and Syria get pissy. Syria isn't even a member.

The other sorces of oil would make sure that vital areas still get oil but the rest of the world would grind to a halt. Oil is not just used for transport ect, you know plastic is made from oil right? If they cut off oil for a long time we would be so totally screwed as to be unimaginable.

So yeah, we can keep ticking but I for one dont feel like payin $5 a litre for petrol after lining up for it for 3 hours. Think I'm joking? Look up what happened last time OPEC played hardball in the 60's-70's.

Correct. If they were to take unified and serious action, there'd be serious problems. Those problems would not be insurmountable, however. It'd be rough, but we'd get through it more comfortably than they would.
Of course, they're highly unlikely to go to such lengths to put pressure on Turkey for the sake of one member.

Ummm... yeah they would.

Done it before they will do it again. They can survive a few months with out the revenue, they have billions in stock piles and they know the second they need money they can just start selling oil again.

Exactly, they can survive for a few months. And we can outlast them. Again, they're not going to go through all this trouble over one member losing a chunk of its water.

On another note, I find it amusing that as I'm typing this the nBSG episode Water is playing on the TV.

Last time someone f***ed with their water the 6 day war happened. So yeah, they do a little more than sabre rattling.

No, last time someone fucked with Israel's water supply the Six Day War happened. It was the Arab countries damning Israel's water source in that instance.

Honestly I dont think your grasping the seriousness of Turkey damming those rivers.

You're seriously overstating the seriousness of it. The rivers flow through two countries. Even if they were both cut off completely then both countries would still have other sources at their disposal. It'd fuck up those two countries for a while until they could find other sources, but two countries (one currently occupied by US troops) are not going to declare war on a vastly superior nation, and by default several of the most powerful nations on the planet, over it. Even North Korea wouldn't be that insane.

Air superiorty? No. They may have a bit of technological lead against some of them but they are over whelmed in numbers.

You could say the same for Israel during the SDW, and we all know how that air war ended.

I think I have proved that while not an easy fight the Alliance could very likely win. It wouldnt be easy but they would pull it off.

Your alliance is unlikely to even come into existence in the first place. As I've shown.

The 6 day war happened pretty f***ing quick. Everyone knew it was coming but no one knew exactly when.

Correct. And both sides were well aware that war was imminent. Turkey would be in the same situation. They'd have plenty of warning that a war was imminent.

For one the instability in the region would allow them to extend their influnce in the area through military and economic aid.

For Russia it would be great since they would once more be raking in the big dollars from oil.

It distracts the EU allowing Russia to keep trying to get power over its old territories.

And it shows nicely that America is no longer able to solve the worlds problems

Very well, it may benefit them in some ways. They're still unlikely to do much other than wait 'till the war's over and profit from the losers.