Things that may not survive the coming recession

[Graham Kennedy]

From here:

1. Free tech support
The practice still employed by some companies of paying humans to answer phones and solve technical problems with hardware or software purchased for consumers will become a thing of the past. PCs, laptops, and hardware peripherals, as well as application software -- these categories will be purchased like airline tickets, with price becoming the sole criteria for many buyers. In order to compete on price, companies who now offer real tech support will replace it with message boards (users helping users), wikis, wizards, software-based troubleshooting tools, and other unsatisfying alternatives.

2. Wi-Fi you have to pay for
Everyone is going to share the cost of public Wi-Fi because the penny-pinching public will gravitate to places that offer "free" Wi-Fi. Companies that charge extra for Wi-Fi will see their iPhone, BlackBerry, and netbook-toting customers -- i.e., everybody -- taking business elsewhere. The only place you'll pay for Wi-Fi will be on an airplane.

3. Landline phones
Digital phone bundles for homes (where TV, home networking, and landline phone service are offered in a total package) will keep the landline idea alive for a while, but as millions of households drop their cable TV services and as consumers look to cut all needless costs, the trend toward dropping landline service in favor of cell phone service only will accelerate until it's totally mainstream, and only grandma still has a landline phone.

4. Movie rental stores
The idea of retail stores where you drive there, pick a movie, stand in line, and drive home with it will become a quaint relic of the new fin de siecle (look it up!). The new old way to get movies will be discs by mail, and the new, new way will be downloading.

5. Web 2.0 companies without a business plan
The era when Web-based companies could emerge and grow on venture capital, collecting eyeballs and members at a rapid clip and deferring the business plan until later are dead and gone. Yeah, I'm talking to you, Twitter. Sand Hill Road-style venture capital is shrinking toward nothing, and investors in general will be hard to come by. Those few remaining investors will want to see real, solid business plans before the first dollar is wired to any startup's bank.

6. Most companies in Silicon Valley
Tech company failures and mergers will leave the industry with a low two-digit percentage (maybe 25 percent) of the total number of companies now in existence. Like the automobile industry, which had more than 200 car makers in the 1920s and emerged from the Depression with just a few, Silicon Valley is in for some serious contraction. The difference is that the auto industry ended up with the Big Three, whereas the number of tech companies will grow dramatically again during the next boom.

7. Palm Inc.
Elevation Partners, which has among its principals U2 lead singer Bono, pumped a whopping $100 million into the failing Palm Inc. this week.

The idea is to give the company time to release its forthcoming Nova operating system, which will take the cell phone world by storm and give Apple a run for its money. It would have been far more efficient, however, to just flush that money down the toilet. With the iPhone setting the handset interface agenda, BlackBerry maker RIM kicking butt in the businesses market, and Google stirring up trouble with its Android platform, this is no time for a clueless company like Palm to be introducing a new operating system. By this time next year, Palm will be gone. And so might Elevation Partners.

8. Yahoo
Yahoo is another company that can't seem to do anything right. Or, at least, can't compete with Google. Yahoo will be acquired by someone, and its brand will become an empty shell -- used for some inane set of services but appreciated only by armchair historians (joining the ranks of Netscape, Napster, and Commodore).

9. Half of all retail stores
Many retail stores are obsolete and will be replaced by online competitors. Entire malls will become ghost towns. By this time next year, most video game stores, book stores and toy stores -- as well as many other categories -- will simply vanish. Amazon.com will grow and grow.

10. Satellite radio
I'm sorry, Howard Stern. It's over. The newly merged Sirius XM Radio simply cannot sustain its losses. The company is already deeply in debt and would need to dramatically increase subscribers over the next six months in order to meet its debt obligations. Unfortunately, new car sales, where a huge percentage of satellite radios are sold, are in the gutter and stand-alone subscriptions are way down.

Change is hard. But efficiency is good. While boom years gives us radical innovation and improve consumer choice, recessions help us focus on what's really important and accelerate the demise of technologies and companies that are already obsolete.

So say good-bye to these 10 things, and say hello (eventually) to a new economy, a new boom and a new way of doing things.

[Captain Picard's Hair]

Of course, you can also expect to see a boom in crime during the recession.

What will bear watching is how well the new Congress will work with President Obama once he is sworn in wrt getting a stimulus package through, particularly given the extent to which the finances of the world tend to revolve around America.

[Aaron]

I really like #9. In a credit crisis and a time where the average American has over 10K in credit card debt, online shopping is going to go through the roof! It's kind of hard to buy anything online without a fragging card and if your stupid enough to buy stuff off the net when you can't afford food, well then you deserve what your going to get.

I would lament the loss of Palm though, I really like their OS.

[Reliant121]

The problem with retailers going is you cant see what you are buying

[Captain Picard's Hair]

I would lament the loss of Palm though, I really like their OS.

Except for all the damn crashes. Maybe it's just what I'm running on it, but at the worst of times it makes me pine for Windows. ( )

Still, that little device is invaluable to me - and I'm in no position to replace it just yet.

[Aaron]

The problem with retailers going is you cant see what you are buying

Bingo. That's not so much an issue with games and videos but I'm certainly not buying clothes.

Except for all the damn crashes. Maybe it's just what I'm running on it, but at the worst of times it makes me pine for Windows. ( )

Still, that little device is invaluable to me - and I'm in no position to replace it just yet.

Really? I haven't had a Palm for a good six years now so I'm out of it.

[Tsukiyumi]

Of course, you can also expect to see a boom in crime during the recession...

And, if any of that crime comes my way, a rapid series of small booms should also be expected.

[Sonic Glitch]

Speaking for myself, I intend to keep a landline as long as possible. It is my humble opinion that cell phones are perhaps one of the worst things which ever happened to humanity, and yes I do have one. I use it, but I don't have to be happy about it.

[Tsukiyumi]

Speaking for myself, I intend to keep a landline as long as possible. It is my humble opinion that cell phones are perhaps one of the worst things which ever happened to humanity, and yes I do have one. I use it, but I don't have to be happy about it.

Yeah, I don't like that one, either. It'll be quite a hassle with a cell phone, always having to put the battery back in to use the darn thing.

[Graham Kennedy]

I really like #9. In a credit crisis and a time where the average American has over 10K in credit card debt, online shopping is going to go through the roof! It's kind of hard to buy anything online without a fragging card and if your stupid enough to buy stuff off the net when you can't afford food, well then you deserve what your going to get.

I would lament the loss of Palm though, I really like their OS.

Well you can buy online and pay with a debit card rather than a credit card. I often buy like that when I shop online.

I think online shopping will book for some things, but not others. Basically, my theory is that online shopping only works for items where individual quality is constant. No matter where you buy a book or CD from, it's identical to every other copy. But clothes have truly massive variation. When you buy an item of clothing you're never sure if it's right until you see it up close, feel it in your hands, wear it. Art is much the same. These things are at a big disadvantage in online selling.

[Graham Kennedy]

Speaking for myself, I intend to keep a landline as long as possible. It is my humble opinion that cell phones are perhaps one of the worst things which ever happened to humanity, and yes I do have one. I use it, but I don't have to be happy about it.

I looked into this when I bought my iPhone. But in the UK at least, it doesn't actually help much financially. We pay a flat monthly fee of around £20 for "line rental", then call costs on top of that. But you can get deals where all calls are free for an extra £5 a month or so. I could abolish that £5 fee and use my iPhone exclusively, but it's not saving me much. And if I disconnect the line I save the other £20... but I lose my broadband connection.

[Sonic Glitch]

Speaking for myself, I intend to keep a landline as long as possible. It is my humble opinion that cell phones are perhaps one of the worst things which ever happened to humanity, and yes I do have one. I use it, but I don't have to be happy about it.

I looked into this when I bought my iPhone. But in the UK at least, it doesn't actually help much financially. We pay a flat monthly fee of around £20 for "line rental", then call costs on top of that. But you can get deals where all calls are free for an extra £5 a month or so. I could abolish that £5 fee and use my iPhone exclusively, but it's not saving me much. And if I disconnect the line I save the other £20... but I lose my broadband connection.

It's not so much the price for me, it's just I ilke the idea of a landline. A solid dependable connection. Maybe I've read too many techno-thrillers but I'm sure various governments (ie the US with it's massive "black ops" budget) are developing or have developed ways of interfering with wireless signals and wi-fi etc. I like the dependability of a landline. Also, one of the greatest thigns about a landline IMO is: I can ignore it. I like being out of touch from the rest of the world and not instantly accessable.

[Aaron]

Well you can buy online and pay with a debit card rather than a credit card. I often buy like that when I shop online.

You mean an interac card? The kind that links to your bank account? Because I understand that we call a debit card in Canada (which links to a bank account) is actually some sort of credit card in other places in the world.

I think online shopping will book for some things, but not others. Basically, my theory is that online shopping only works for items where individual quality is constant. No matter where you buy a book or CD from, it's identical to every other copy. But clothes have truly massive variation. When you buy an item of clothing you're never sure if it's right until you see it up close, feel it in your hands, wear it. Art is much the same. These things are at a big disadvantage in online selling.

Agreed, I only buy things like books, movies, CD's etc. I found with clothes that a 32 isn't a 32 everywhere.

Honestly though, for me personally not a lot is going to change. I already do most of my "recreational" shopping online via gift cards and for the VA pensions to disappear, the government would have to collapse entirely. Of course if we get run away inflation, we're all fucked.

It's not so much the price for me, it's just I ilke the idea of a landline. A solid dependable connection. Maybe I've read too many techno-thrillers but I'm sure various governments (ie the US with it's massive "black ops" budget) are developing or have developed ways of interfering with wireless signals and wi-fi etc. I like the dependability of a landline. Also, one of the greatest thigns about a landline IMO is: I can ignore it. I like being out of touch from the rest of the world and not instantly accessable.

It's definitely not a techno fantasy. You can easily intercept unencrypted wireless signals. We had to replace all of the wireless keyboards and mice in the Forces because of this very issue and I've seen some of the military EW gear and you'd be amazed what can be done.

I will always have a landline though, I need it for the internet for one but I also require a surefire way for people to get a hold of me in the event of a family emrgency or the kids get hurt at school.

[Sonic Glitch]

It's not so much the price for me, it's just I ilke the idea of a landline. A solid dependable connection. Maybe I've read too many techno-thrillers but I'm sure various governments (ie the US with it's massive "black ops" budget) are developing or have developed ways of interfering with wireless signals and wi-fi etc. I like the dependability of a landline. Also, one of the greatest thigns about a landline IMO is: I can ignore it. I like being out of touch from the rest of the world and not instantly accessable.

It's definitely not a techno fantasy. You can easily intercept unencrypted wireless signals. We had to replace all of the wireless keyboards and mice in the Forces because of this very issue and I've seen some of the military EW gear and you'd be amazed what can be done.

I'm intrigued...

[Aaron]

I'm intrigued...

I bet.